Expressway Investment Risk Study In China

Along with the further opening to the world and deeply reforming of investment and financing management system in China, the investment, construction and operation of expressway project has been changed from the monopoly of central government to the share of various investors such as central government, local government, independent investors, even foreign investors and concession and so on. Due to the introduction of diversified investors and investment modes based on the concept and experience of BOT or concession, a number of independent project management companies on expressway have been established by various investors. The various risks of such project companies in the monopolized expressway network have attracted the great attention of investors.With the concept and theory achievements on risk and risk management in both home and abroad, this paper discussed the risk analysis and risk management on expressway project investment under the current investment management structure in China from the investor's point of views based on the background of building a whole well-off society of China and speeding up the construction of the infrastructures. This paper also proposed the methods of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk analysis and the measures to be taken to avoid and control the identified risks.Considering the characteristics and general rules of expressway project investment, this paper analyzed the risk sources, risk characteristics and main risk types in different phases of project. By the quantitative analysis method, this paper carried out the investment risk analysis and sensitivities evaluation. Based on the conclusion of analysis and evaluation, this paper proposed the measures for the investment decisions and constructive on risk monitoring and control during the process. Such study achievement will provide some important and effective guidance to the decision makers and managers who are engaging in the expressway investment, construction and operation.This paper is composed of seven chapters.In introduction and Chapter 1, the article introduced the development andprospect of expressway in China, and indicated the necessity and importance of project risk management. Based on the introduction of the basic concept and content on risk and risk management, gave the research thought and content.In Chapter 2, the article mainly discussed the project risk identification methods such as DelPhi Method, Brainstorming, Scenarios Analysis, Questionnaires or Checklists, Flow Charts, Financial Statement etc. Then the article introduced the investment modes and construction procedures of expressway investment in China. The project has been phased in 3 parts i.e. feasibility studies phase, construction phase and operation phase. The article analyzed the expressway investment characteristics and the risk sources, risk characteristics and risk rules, including analysis of the risks in different project phases and in different types in details such as political risks, financing risks, construction risks, technical risks, operation risks and market risks etc. Finally the article introduced the application with a case project analysis.In Chapter 3, the article mainly introduced the risk quantitative analysis methods including break-even analysis method and sensitivity analysis method. Then the article introduced the data factors of quantitative analysis and the procedure in expressway investment. With the discussed methods, the article analyzed the risks of the case project and gave the suggestions to decision makers and investors.In Chapter 4, the article mainly described the methods to keep away project risks including risks avoiding, risks transfer, risks keeping and risks control. Then the article proposed dedicated measures to be taken for the main risks in expressway project. The article also suggested management solutions for the case project.In Chapter 5, the article discussed the concept and implementation process of project risk monitoring and proposed the implementation methods of project risk monitoring.At last the article provided the conclusion of this paper.