The Empirical Study Of Energy Demand With A Structural Break Model In China

In recent years, people are high concerned about the energy problem for the energy shortage of our country. The sustainable of energy supply is an important facet of energy security, so scholars at home and abroad have carried on research to the energy market of China. Further investigating the market behavior of energy and probing into the characteristic of energy demand help to hold the earmark of energy market accurately and entirety and make the rational energy development strategy. For this background, this text uses the quantitative analytical method to carry on careful and deep research to the energy market of our country.Based on the energy demand theory and method, we studied the characteristic of energy market of our country at first, and then carried on research to the energy structure and energy efficiency further. The quantity characteristic of the energy demand of our country is motive of all above analysis. During the analysis, we adopted the intensity of energy to weigh the energy efficiency. By in-depth analysis of it, especially the intensity of industrial energy, we explained realistic reason of decrease of energy demand of our country, and provided the policy recommendations. Because energy intensity is only a quantity characteristic of the energy demand of the explanation in terms of economical operation, so we further adopted the structure change theory to examine and analyze the energy demand of our country in empirical research. The result indicated that the energy demand of our country is the process of trend stability with a structure change rather than the process of unit root with a structure change; there is no co-integration relationship between energy demand and economic growth after the year of 1978, namely does not have a long and steady relationship. But there is "part-co-integration" relationship between them, and the model of co-integration with a sudden change is established, namely exogenous variables have greater impact function on the change of energy demand of China.Based on the research of two angles, this paper reflected the quantity characteristic of our country energy demand overall, it also indicated that the guarantee degree (namely energy security question) of the energy-consuming in the future of our country will become a confinement factor in economic development. We should strengthen the guide function on the energy demand of energy policies in the future, and advance and build the energy-efficient society actively.