Measuring The Value And Risk Of High-tech Enterprises Under Uncertainty

To measure the value and risk of an enterprise is one of the most important preconditions of knowing this enterprise. So measuring the value and risk of an enterprise is always very important in microfinance. The traditional methods of enterprise valuation are cost method, market method and discounted cash flow method. These methods are useful when valuating the ordinary enterprise. For the characteristics of value and risk of high-tech enterprises, the traditional valuation methods are not fit to valuate the high-tech enterprises. However, the development of real options theory provides us a new way to valuate the high-tech enterprises. The biggest contribution of the real options theory is the valuation of potential value of flexibility. This is significant to the high-tech enterprises which has high uncertainty. Schwartz and Moon(2000, 2001)'s model is one of the most practical in all real options pricing models. But due to the different accountant system and data obtaining problem, their models have some trouble when using in our country. In this paper, we first revise the Schwartz and Moon's model in the following two aspects: partition of cost and estimation of parameters. Then we make use of this revised model to evaluate a listed high-tech company Daangene(002030). We use the C programming language to do the Monte Carol simulation. Studied the simulation results, we innovatively use the probability of bankruptcy and VaR method to measure the risk of Daangene, and calculate the risk-adjusted value of Daangene. In order to find out the factors that influence the high-tech enterprises' value and risk, we take the Daangene for example to perform the sensitivity analysis of whole value of firm, probability of bankruptcy and VaR. At last, through the analysis of Daangene, we discussed how to manage the value and risk of high-tech enterprise.