Study On The Uncertainty Of Valuation

With the frequent appearance of uncertain phenomenon in real world, the uncertain question is gradually becoming object of study of more and more subjects. Many subjects have put forward their own concept and methods to the uncertainty, such as the random concept in mathematics and the computational method in the probability, risk in economics, the concept of uncertainty, the measurement methods of risk and so on, all of which give us more help to the deep study of uncertainty theory. The uncertainty is a realistic and common phenomenon in valuation, although the people have hoped that the appraiser can be able to obtain certain result based on the science valuation method, however, in the process of meeting customer needs, appraisers found that the valuation is full of uncertainty. The best appraisers can do is that they obtain the relative certain result relying on historical data and information and their own skills and experience. Therefore, valuation is"Not only a science but also an art". At present, the market approach, cost approach and income approach are considered to be the most reliable ones of the valuation methods.They are three kinds of certain method based on complete information, so the result is a single point estimated value. The reality is that the market condition of valuation is mostly uncertain. We study the valuation problem whose uncertainty is very strong with the certain research method. The theory and practical realm begin to suspect the problem that whether the point estimated value can reasonably express the result of valuation or not. This article breaks through the traditional research pattern which takes the certainty and complete information as its characteristics, turns into uncertainty as reality background and has carried on the system analysis to the uncertainty of valuation. First, we analyze the uncertainty factors of valuation using the induction, deduction and system analytic method, mainly including the main body of valuation, the object of valuation, the valuation methods and valuation environment with four factors. Our goal is to help the appraiser and the valuation report user to better understand and use the results of the assessment. The second, based on uncertainty correlation theories, we use the economic, mathematics and statistics related discipline research methods and the mentality to describe the uncertainty of valuation by using the combined research method of qualitative and quantitative. We can come to the conclusion that we can express the point estimated value with the most possible value(the most possible value is usually equal to the mean and median) and express the uncertainty scope with value interzone under certain fiduciary level, attaching certain graph and the words explanation. At the same time, we describe the results of the value under different market conditions by using Probability curve. We carry on the supplement and the consummation from the uncertainty angle to the existing valuation method. Once more, we use"Crystal Ball"analysis software to analyze the uncertainty of valuation with Monte Carol Simulation. It gives us a good help from the quantitative analysis. Finally, we propose the management measures to reduce the uncertainty of the valuation and formed the conclusion of this article.