Simulation Of Strategic Investment Decisions In Uncertainty Condition

Recent years,along with the more fiercer market competition of enerprises,the development of economic theory and the unceasing innovation of the teaching model for Economics and Management,the idea and method on cultivation of the managerial talents are facing the significant transformation.On the foundation of development in the computer technology,information processing and management technology,the commercial analogous system starts to become one new method.The commercial simulation is combining the computer programming language and the database system.And provides a simulation environment of the stragetic decision for manager on the computer by building mathematical model of economic factors.It can feed back the outcome of decision-making,help the policy-makers revise their decision and ultimately achieve to the combination of the theory and the practice.First,this article analyzes the importance of establishing a practical decision-making simulation system from two sides which one is the objective requirements of manager and the other is development of management's teaching mode.Second,the introduction of the characteristics,development history,status of the main form and application of simulation, business simulation,business competitiveness simulation is followed in detail.After that,the important role of real options theory in investment decision-making,especially in uncertain environment and the possibility of considering real option theory in bussiniss simulation are introduced.Through analyzing the two mature business competition simulation system-Global Management Challenge and Techmark,this paper summarizes the problems of reserch and application in businiss simalation.Then by comparing the two systems,the key elements that build the decision-making simulation system is summed up.On this basis,through analyzing variables,parameters and equation of variables and designing the system structure and function modules,the simulation environment of an enterprise's Competition with other competitors in market is constructed.This can provides a valuable reference in decision-making of enterprises and management training through simulating the decision behaviours and consequences..