Research On The Complexity Of Fictitious Economy And Its Pre-warning System

This article aims to embark the research from the complex system science angle of view, findthe connection both in the complex system science and the fictitious economy, discuss thefictitious economy's intrinsic characteristics, establish a pre-warning system which aims for therisk in fictitious economy's fluctuation, and tries hard to offers a few ordinary introductoryremarks so that others may offer their valuable ideas.The article combs the research in connotation and categories of the fictitious economy at first;Then attests that the fictitious economy may be regarded as a system, especially a complexsystem, and has the main characteristics of complex system both in the theoretical andempirical way;Then analyzes the complex system's law of evolution, incorporating with thefictitious economy's own peculiarity, thus draws out the law of evolution in the fluctuation offictitious economy.Finally, the paper acts according to the law of evolution in the fluctuation of fictitious economyanalyzed above, finds that we must postpone the critical state through the outside monitoring asfar as possible, or at least make a full preparation before the arrival of critical state, in order toreduce the lose to the smallest point. This is a more feasible way to control the risk at present.The key point in constructing the pre-warning system successfully lies in monitoring dropsaccurately and in real-time. The pre-warning system takes the VaR technology as the essence.In the pre-warning system, the author selects VaR models which are suitable for the complexsystem surveys, uses the models to monitor the most greatly loses every day, in order to monitorthe small avalanche in real-time and postpone the arrival of big avalanche.