Research On The Fluctuation And Market Risk Warning System Of Chinese Fictitious Economy

From the view of the fluctuation of the fictitious economy in China, this article takes the Shanghai stock and bond market as the representation of Chinese fictitious economy and discusses the price fluctuation in the area of Chinese fictitious economy and the question of the risk early warning in the market of fictitious economy, using a series of econometric device, the VaR system theory, and the model of the complexity in Financial systems.Firstly, this paper combs the academic circles related the connotation of fictitious economy, and then finds the function mechanism of fluctuation to the development of real economy in the area of the fictitious economy. This paper thinks that the fictitious economy has the characteristic of intrinsic fluctuation. On the one hand the fluctuation of fictitious economy influence consummation through the wealth effect and the fluid effect; on another hand, it also influences the investment through Tobin-q value effect, financial accelerator effect and stockholder's rights financing effect. Thus through these two aspects function above, it influence the movement of real economy. Moreover the fictitious economy's'fluctuation also through affects its own stable development.Then, the paper taking the Chinese stock market and bond market as the representation of Chinese fictitious economy, through a series of econometric device, discusses the characteristic of fluctuation Chinese fictitious economy system has, in order to seek the rule. Finally, according to the characteristic of fluctuation in the Chinese fictitious economy system, this paper has selected the VaR technology, which is a new risk management technology in the recent ten years and use GARCH -GED model in order to compute the daily risk value in Chinese stock market and bond market, and then establish the market risk warning system in Chinese fictitious economy. The writer hope this risk warning system in this paper become a strengthen method to supervise and manage the market risk actively.