The Design Of Fictitious Economic Monitoring Index System And Its Application Research

Based on the operation features of the fictitious economy of China during theperiod of January2002to December2012, this paper assesses the operation boomtrend of the fictitious. From the connotation of the fictitious economy to the definitionof the fictitious economy boom and its operation monitoring, this paper investigatesthe theoretical basis of the fictitious economy monitoring and its warning anddiscusses the method of monitoring and early warning methods suitable for thefictitious economy. The specific contents of this paper include the following threeaspects.First, this paper establishes the theretical basis of ficticious economy andconstructs a ficticious economic monitoring index system.The paper sorts out therelevant literatures and studies of the fictitious economy and defines the connotationof the fictitious economy. The paper gives the general definition of the fictitiouseconomic climate and climate monitoring in order to explore the diffusion index andthe composite index and the warning signal system of the fictitious economicmonitoring and early warning. This paper designs the fictitious economic monitoringindex system according to the requirements of the construction of the diffusion indexand the composite index and the warning signal system. The designing of the systemis as a reference to the fictitious economy run on the basis of circulation benchmark.The paper uses the method of the difference correlation analysis to calculate thecorrelative coefficient of all alternative indicators and the benchmarks, and then thepaper divides the alternative indicators into the leading, consistent and the lagindicators group according to the size of the correlative coefficient with thecorresponding lag alternative indicators.Second, this paper constructs the diffusion indexes and the composite indexesand analyses its empirical results. The construction of the diffusion indexes and thecomposite indexes bases on the method of the diffusion index and the composite indexaccording to the leading indicators and the consistent indicators of the fictitiouseconomic indicators system. These indexes include the leading diffusion index, theconsistent diffusion index, the leading composite index and the consistent compositeindex. This paper analyzes the running boom trend of the fictitious economyaccording to the exponential curve fluctuation characteristics. The diffusion indexes and the composite indexes analysis shows that China’s fictitious economy keeps in astatus of the overall economy during the2002-2012except the removal of somemonths in2005and2008.Finally, this paper constructs a warning signal lights system and a comprehensivewarning index. The paper selects the relative importance indicators from the leadingindicators group and the consistent indicators group as the fictitious economicwarning lights indicators. Then the paper uses placement probability method todetermine the critical value of all lights indicators and constructs the comprehensivewarning index of the fictitious economy according to the different marks of thewarning lights indicators. This paper analyzes the hot and cold conditions based onthe comprehensive warning index threshold to determine the score of each month. Theanalysis shows that the fictitious economy is still running in colder areas, but it hasstarted to rise to boomer area according to the comparative analysis of thecomprehensive warning index and the coincident composite index. So we can expectthat in the near future the fictitious economy will run into the green zone which isnormal and stable region and the fictitious economy will serve the real economybetter than before.