Simulation Analysis On Landuse Change Of Small Scale Basin

In the domestic and abroad research on the land use/the land cover change, it becomes a trend to choose small scale representative region as the research object, in order to analyze the temporal and spatial change regulation and its driving mechanism. It shows the CLUE-S Model is a considerable one which is suitable to the research on simulating small scale and typical region land use change among many models.This thesis takes examples of Luoyugou basin in Tianshui City as the representative basin of the third sub-district of gully region of the loess plateau. Based on three status land use maps of Year 1990, 1995, and 2001, which are classified by remote sensing image data, and combined with the drive factors of DEM, soil, slope, erosion, rainfall and socio-economic statistic data, etc., the thesis aims to simulate the pattern of land use change in this basin in 2010. The relative stable factors in the research section are classified into static state drive factors;the yearly changing factors are classified into dynamic drive factors. In light of the result of the statistic analysis on driving factors, the more contributive driving factors to the analysis of land use change would be chosen into the simulation of the CLUE-S model and its result would be tested by land use map of Year 2001. The results indicate that CLUE-S is capable of classifying correctly 83% and Kappa index 0.80 at the basic grid level (60m*60m) . The land use temporal and spatial change simulation of the CLUE-S model in this region has achieved its goal.According to the simulation analysis, the comparison of land use condition between the studied region 2001-2010 and 1990-2001 shows the characteristics as follows: the forest area increases at the same rate approximately, and grass area increases rapidly, sloping field decreases at a high rate, the renovation rate of terrace increases, which representsits increasing areas. The overlay analysis on factors between land use condition vs. slope and DEM, together with the analysis on the percentage of green space coverage reveals that, the land use in studied region develops to a rational ecological community and the vegetation on the earth surface could prevent some natural disasters efficiently such as erosion. The land use of this region tends to a stabled and rational state.