Land Use Dynamic Change And Forecast Analysis In Tianjin

Land-use and land-cover change has always been a focused issue for research in various countries.The regional LUCC research is of great theoretical and practical significance for the effective and rational use of regional land resources,the change of regional ecological environment and the increasingly serious urban problems.In this paper,Tianjin is selected as the research area.Through the acquisition of land use status in 2000,2008 and 2016,the dynamic evolution of spatial pattern of land use in Tianjin from 2000 to 2016 is studied and analyzed,based on the theoretical knowledge of landscape ecology,this paper explores the evolution characteristics and dynamic changes of land use pattern under the image of human activities in Tianjin.According to the reasons of dynamic change information,seven natural factors and two socioeconomic factors were selected.The binary and logistic regression method was used to analyze and study the driving force and driving model of land use change in various land types in Tianjin.This paper establishes the CLUE-S model to simulate and analyze the land use situation of Tianjin in 2020.This study provides a reliable scientific basis for land use planning in Tianjin,and provides some reference value for LUCC research in other regions.The main achievements of this paper are as follows:(1)This paper analyzes and studies the dynamic changes of land use and its evolution in Tianjin from 2000 to 2016.Through the use of land dynamic degree,land transfer matrix,land use degree comprehensive index and other methods,obtained from 2000 to 2016 in Tianjin,the most obvious changes in the land is the construction land,other land and farmland.(2)This paper analyzes and studies the evolution of land use landscape in Tianjin from 2000 to 2016.Through the selection of landscape fragmentation index,landscape shape index andlandscape diversity index.The results show that the landscape pattern of cultivated land and construction land in Tianjin is obvious.Because of the fragmentation and diversification of cultivated land and construction land in the study area,the landscape pattern of Tianjin is diversified and fragmentation.(3)This paper constructs the driving model of land use change information in Tianjin.Based on the binary logistic regression model established for different land types,it is found that the natural factors in Tianjin land use are greater than the socioeconomic factors,and the distribution of different land types is driven by different driving factors.(4)According to the land use data of Tianjin,the CLUE-S model is used to simulate the spatial distribution and spatial pattern of land use in Tianjin in 2020,and put forward effective suggestions for land use planning in Tianjin.