The Simulation Of The Urban Land Use Change Based On GIS And CLUE-S Model

Land use change reflects the use and influence of human being. Reasonable forecast land use change is an important part of social and economic development planning.This study focuses on the current international broader application of CLUE-S model combining GIS technology on the basis of statistical analysis, used the 2009 and 2014 land use data as the basic data to construct CLUE-S model, simulates the land use simulation diagram of 2014 and 2019. Simulation results show it is better that CLUE-S model used to simulate a small area of land use change. The main contents and main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1) The land use types are reclassified. The suitable driving in research area factors are selected according to the characteristics of the study area and the limiting condition, with ArcGIS and SPSS software, analyzing the correlation between various types and driving factors, calculating the area under the ROC curve.(2) By multi-scale feature analysis, the best model scale (50m) is obtained, using the method of logistic regression models, constructing CLUE-S model for simulation and prediction of the 2014 land use, and contrasting land utilization actuality. The Kappa to verify the accuracy of CLUE-S model was 0.795 showed that the prediction effect was better.(3) Three different scenarios of 2019 land use change show that land use changes of regional hot spots are concentrated in the outskirts of the city, pass along the road, and key industrial zone. In different situations, land use pattern has obvious spatial differences.