Dynamic Prediction Of Urban Spatial Structure Based On Cellular-Automata

At present our country is locating the fast development phase of urbanization and there aremany problems in urban space development up against, such as the urban land use spatialstructure change, the urban extension, and optimization adjustment of the urban socialeconomy spatial structure and so on. It is urgent to gain policy-making support informationin urban space development. In order to solve the problem, cellular automata model wasapplied to the research of urban system. The evolution rule of urban spatial structure wasanalyzed. CA-AR and fuzzy logic CA model were constructed for prediction of populationspatial distribution dynamic change and urbanization evolution. The models were appliedto simulate dynamic evolution of urban spatial structure in Jinan. According to thesimulation result, the mechanism of urban spatial structure evolution was analyzed and theoptimization plan and the measures were proposed.This paper was discussed from five parts.First part was introduction. The background and the significance were introduced. Theconcept expression of urban spatial structure was understood and the research developmentof western and Chinese urban spatial structure theory was elaborated separately. It wasintroduced the research situation of cellular automata application to urban spatial structureresearch. Finally the research mentality was introduced through research structure andresearch content.The second part was the urban spatial structure evolution and patterns. Based on theurban spatial structure evolution theory, the general characteristic was analyzed in urbanspatial structure evolution and the influence factor of urban spatial structure was identified.It was to analyze the mechanism of urban spatial structure evolution according toself-organization. Finally, the exterior pattern, the expansion pattern and the socialeconomy spatial structure pattern of urban space were summarized.The third part was the CA conceptual model of urban spatial structure simulation. TheCA was extended base on cellular automaton basic theory and was more appropriate withdevelopment rule of geography phenomenon, and can simulate the evolutionary process ofurban complex system. The course of urban spatial structure CA conceptual model wasintroduced in detail.Fourth part was demonstration research of urban spatial structure in Jinan. It wasbriefly to analyze change situation of population space and the urban spatial structure inJinan. It was to analyze the evolutionary process of urban spatial structure in Jinan fromthe urban population spatial distribution and the urbanization. CA-AR model was used topredict the population spatial distribution and fuzzy logic CA model was used to simulatethe urbanization. The mechanism of urban spatial structure evolution was analyzed basedon the results of simulation and the optimization plan of urban spatial structure pattern wasproposed.Finally, the major conclusions of this thesis was summed up briefly and some adviseand assume was given in future.