Theory Study And Simulation Analyse On Bullwhip Effect In Supply Chain

The competition between corporations has evolved into the competition on supply chain with the globalization and the intensification of competition. During the process of implementing supply chain management, there exists a fact that the information is distorted to some extent, which is called bullwhip effect. Bullwhip Effect is a key problem in supply chain, which has been focused and discussed by many overseas and native scholars for a lot of years. Bullwhip Effect is adverse to supply chain management and its presence can cause many problems of SCM: The wholesaler and retailer's order as well as the peak value of manufactory's production are highly above the actual demand. Then is the phenomenon of overstock and occupancy of capital. All of these can keep the whole system from running effectively. With the increase of the implementing corporations, the bullwhip effect is more and more obvious, and the running of the system becomes very difficult and complicated. Traditional research on bullwhip effect can be divided into three aspects: (1) the existence of the effect; (2) the causes of the effect; (3) how to reduce the effect. Now many new methods are used to study the effect, including the technology of computer.The paper first gives a review of the conceptions of supply chain and supply chain management. Then it discusses the benefits of the supply chain management and the research of the bullwhip effect. The paper analyzes four sources of the bullwhip effect: demand signal processing, rational game, order batching, and price variations. The emphasis of the paper is that using control theory to analyze the bullwhip effect. Using the order-up-to (OUT) method and two demand forecasting patterns, that are exponential smoothing forecasting and moving average forecasting, we give the frequency response plot and the noise bandwidth figure with the help of the system control tool of Matlab. We show that information sharing helps to reduce the bullwhip effect, especially at higher levels in the chain. However, the bullwhip effect problem is not completely eliminated and it still increases as one moves up the chain. The paper also makes an attempt to explain bullwhip effect by means of Matlab/Simulink with the simulation of"Beer Game", and to make science analysis in logistic so as to improve the modern logistic management, which is characterized by computer technology. Finally, the thesis touches on three issues such as the validity of the production- smoothing model, the influences of different stock...