| The highly development of automotive industry and the gross rapid increase ofautomotives caused serious challenges to our national energy and environment.As a result, petroleum shortage, energy can't fulfill the requirements as well asair pollution becomes more severity. Therefore, saving petroleum resource,reforming the automotive energy consumption structure, exploiting andextending the use of clean or alternative fuel vehicles, carrying out the newsituation of automotive energy diversity has become an important topic for thedevelopment of our national automotive industry.Based on the consideration of energy, environment and sustainable developmentof economy, each country would make the developing policy and set a clearstrategy target through the effect of government management to the automotiveindustry, also, definite the developing direction for the automotive energydiversity. By the way of establishing the consumption policy and different taxduty to alternative fuel vehicles, encouraging and inducing people to buy anduse clean energy automotives. In order to promote advanced technology to bedeveloped and used, as well as alternative fuel vehicle to be industrialization,more and more stringent compel lent regulations which concerned environmentprotecting and energy saving are made.Combined with research works of the project "Research on the Strategy andPolicy for China Automotive Energy Diversity", which is a subject of "863"program from Ministry of Science and Technology, this paper carry through theresearches to the current status of automotive energy, developing trends andinfluence characteristics about diversity development. Meanwhile currentlyapplied policies were analyzed and assessed by the method of Fuzzy SyntheticEvaluation. As a result of analysis for the influences characteristics, policiesassessments and forecasted results for the number of alternative fuel vehicles,automotive diversity development target as well as some policy suggestions areproposed in this paper. The conclusions of this research will be helpful toachieve the sustainable development of automotive industry. It will also beuseful to set up a good foundation for the development of clean energyautomotives.At first, the main contents of automotive energy diversity and the strategysignificance to develop the diversity are discussed in this paper. Then, both ofinternal and external development status as well as applied policies forautomotive diversity are analyzed. Existing problems in the development ofautomotive diversity are talked about briefly. The technology developmentstatus and its application in the future for mainly clean energy automotives andalternative fuel vehicles are analyzed and summarized. Based on the theory oflife cycle assessment, environment influence characteristics and costing fordifferent types of clean energy automotive are compared and analyzed. On theconsideration of energy supply, market demand and the construction for basicestablishment and correlative system, those concerned influence characteristicsare analyzed generally. Through the analysis, these conclusions were drawn asfollowing. Biodiesel, coal fuel, ethanol and methanol fuel have the advantages toextend its use as alternative fuels, since there are no need for either enginemodified or gas station rebuild. Also, biodiesel, ethanol and methanol all belongto the regeneration energy and would have a big development in the future.Electricity vehicles, hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles have to improve bothof their technology and vehicle performance, and cut down its cost. So it will bedifficult to extend its use recently. With the technology becomes much matureand the industrialization expands , hybrid vehicles maybe have a rapiddevelopment in several years.Secondly, taking the CNG, LPG and Ethanol automotives as our research object,development policies and measurements are analyzed and assessed as itsimportance by the analytical hierarchy method. Conclusions were drawn thatfoundation and construction are much important to the development of CNG andLPG automotives, and administration and research investment are muchimportant to the ethanol automotives. According to the results of policiesimportance assessment, conclusions are obtained by the method of fuzzysynthetic evaluation that policies of CNG, LPG and ethanol automotives aresemi-active and active respectively. Influences characteristics for thedevelopment of NG, LPG automotives are analyzed by the method of grayrelation analysis. A forecast model of gray GM (1,1) was set up. According tothe forecasted results, the number of CNG, LPG automotives in 2020 will be7.1% of the general automotive number, which is difference compared with the10% requirement. Therefore, in order to carry out the adjustment andoptimization of automotive energy structure, much active policy should beapplied to promote the development of automotive energy diversity.At last, according to the results of policies analysis and forecast research, andcombined with the general development target of our national automotiveenergy diversity, the development targets in 2010 and possibility analysis foreach kind of clean energy and alternative fuel automotives were discussed in thispaper. Also, some useful suggestions, which will be helpful and adaptable tomaintain our sustainable development of automotive industry, are proposed aswell. |
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