Impact Assessment Of Cultivated Land Change Upon Grain Productive Capacity

The grain security is the important problem of concerning human survival and development. With the economic development and population growth, the reduction of cultivated land quantity and cultivated land quality deterioration has already become a pair of unavoidable contradictions with expanding of grain demand rapidly. So, to analysis and research of the change pattern and situation of present cultivated land resources in order to protect and improve grain integrated production capacity conscientiously have already become the inevitable strategic choice.This thesis has launched research of change of the regional cultivated land quantity, regional cultivated land quality evaluation and the impact assessment of the regional cultivated land changes on grain productive capacity in terms of space distribution;Through studying the space distribution of change of cultivated land quantity and cultivated land resource quality, it probes into the systems approach that the impact of the change of regional cultivated land on grain production capacity. This thesis has taken central and west regions of Jilin Province as an example and carried on the positive research to impact assessment of cultivated land change on grain productive capacity. First of all, we monitor the quantity of cultivated land of 1993 and 2003 of central and west regions in Jilin Province dynamically. Under the environment of ArcGIS software, we analyze in terms of space distribution that the characteristic of the quantity of cultivated land changes and reason of changes. Secondly, we set up the regional cultivated land quality evaluation index system in study area, selected Analytic Hierarchy Process approach, adoptted the law of composite index to evaluate the quality of the cultivated land;combining cultivated land quantity space change analysis, through overlaying operation of cultivated land quantity data and the result of cultivated land quality grading, we draw the change of two issues of cultivated land quality. At last, on the foundation of finishing quality evaluation of cultivated land, we utilize the per unit area yield of grain near sampled point of on-site inspection, confirm the per unit area yield of grain of different grading cultivated land;utilizing the per unit area yield of grain and cultivated land area having changed, we analyzed change of the grain yield, and also analyzed synthetically finally that impact of the cultivated land changes on grain production capacity.