Research On Cultivated Land Change And Comprehensive Grain Production Capacity

The changes of cultivated land influence the production of food in China as the material base of agricultural production activities. For the situation of a large population but a scarce land in China, especially in the case of cultivated land resource is very scarce, we focus on the problem that how to produce enough grain to ensure national food security with limited cultivated. The paper takes Shangqiu city as a case study and proposes countermeasures of protecting farmland and guaranteeing food safety in production by systematic analysis, and forecasts the change of cultivated land and comprehensive grain production capacity. This paper can provide a reference for other people to research on cultivated land change and grain production in China.Based on reading a large number of references and defining the related concept of cultivated land and grain production, the paper analyzed the driving force of cultivated land change in Shangqiu city, and predicted land quantity in the year 2020 by the establishment of the BP neural network prediction model for Shangqiu city. The output of grain yield was predicted based on analysis the change trend of the grain yield per hectare, the ratio of the grain crops to industrial crops and multiple cropping index.Main conclusions: Prediction of cultivated land is 715819 hectares, which is 4091.06 hectares less than the planning target of Shangqiu city in 2020. The grain production capacity is 68.44 billion kg, compared with 64.41 billion kg in 2013 which added 4.03 billion kg, but lower than the grain production goal task of 72.5 billion kg of Shangqiu. It means a heavy task to grain production,and it is very difficult to accomplish the task of food production target. The cultivated land realizable grain productivity is 122.4 billion kg according to the results of farmland classification in Shangqiu, the realizable production capacity potential reached 33.2 billion kg, which can meet the goal task of grain production requirements in 2020.