The Research Of The Credit Risk Evaluation Of The Public Companies Based On The DEA Technology

Since Chinese financial market has yet been shunting and developing, the methods and means of analyzing the credit risks are comparatively laggard. The credit risks of the public companies mainly are evaluated and analyzed by the qualitative ways, such as traditional static ratio analysis, etc. which cause many mistakes or errors. And there are still not many practical models which focus on the characteristics of the public companies to analyze their credit risks as well. Focusing on the credit risks of the listed companies as the main research object, and the relativity between the degree of the credit risks of the public companies and their financial situation as the cut-in point, basing on the DEA technology which is under the new Worst DEA concept and the contrast on the classical MDA, this dissertation researches the evaluation of the credit risks of the Chinese public companies. The content of the research contains the basic theory, model construction and application research, which composed as four chapters.Chapter 1 is the introduction of the academic background, the development and the application of the credit risk study and presents the research framework along with the technical route for this study.Chapter 2 By introducing the credit and credit risks of the public companies, researches the theory of the evaluation of the credit risks of the companies and introduces the evaluate basis and thoughts of the classical MDA and DEA in details. Chapter 3 Based on the analysis of the above two chapters, construct the DEA model with the realistic figures, which accord with the realities of the Chinese manufacturing public companies.Chapter 4 Contrasts and analyzes the demonstrated research result of tested sample public company which evaluated the credit risks by using the DEA and MDA models four years before ST managed. And give directive suggestion to the credit risks management to the Chinese companies.The research result indicate that Normal/Worst DEA model has the forecast ability to the degree of credit risks of the public companies before four years, more exact than the mainstream MDA model. It cold effectively recognize the credit risks and their changes of the Chinese companies, which provide import thoughts and methods for the...