Risk-based Assessment Of Emergency Response Capacity For Stampede Accident In Large-scale Activities

The pursuit of people to spiritual culture is growing with the rapid development of economic. The number of large-scale activities is growing, such as exhibitions, athletic and so on. Stampede happens easily, owing to personnel highly intensive. The trample accident has the characteristics of complicated inducement, strongly burst, difficult control. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the reasons for the stampede and evaluate the ability of emergency management in large scale activities.First of all, this paper summarizes the 95 major crowded trample accidents from 2000 to2014, mainly about the type of activity, the number of casualties, causes and so on. The characteristics and rules of the crowded trample accident are summarized. The stampede is divided into 8 classes. The number of the stampedes and casualties are in the top three when religious gatherings, festival and sports competition are held. October each year to next March is a high-incidence season of the stampede. Accidents more likely occur in the entrance,narrow channel, stands, ladders and bridges. Combining with the 3E principles of accident prevention, some measures of accident prevention are suggested according to the aspects of education, engineering technology and enforcement.Secondly, the models and methods of the emergency response capability evaluation of large-scale activities were studied. According to the time sequence of emergency management,the evaluation index of emergency response capability is established including three first level indicators of monitoring and early warning in advance, in response to the matter and after the recovery, ten second level indicators and twenty-seven third level indicators; The risk evaluation indexes are established, including four first indexes of human factors, material factors, environmental factors, and management factors and twenty second level indexes;Determine the weight of each index by Hierarchical entropy analysis method.The dynamic evaluation model of emergency response capability is established basing on grey theory.Finally, the evaluation method and model are applied to the case of "China- South Asia Expo". On the basis of quantitative calculation, some measures are put forward to strengthen emergency capacity.