Large-scale Blackout Based On Scenario Construction Study On Emergency Capacity Assessment

The complexity,automation and interconnection of power system are important symbols of the progress and development of modern science and technology.Electric energy promotes the pace of social development,but at the same time,the progress of science and technology also makes the power system full of unstable factors,and the risk of accidents is rising.The major blackouts in recent decades have sounded an alarm bell for us to realize how serious the consequences of blackouts will be in modern society.In this paper,scenario construction theory is applied to large-scale blackouts.By collecting cases,the causes,characteristics and evolution mechanism of large-scale blackouts are analyzed statistically,and a more intuitive understanding of such accidents is obtained.In view of a city's detailed description of the cause of the accident and its development process,this paper uses the equation model to roughly estimate the consequences of the accident,and summarizes the tasks and corresponding emergency actions faced by command agencies at different levels at different stages.Based on the scenario construction of a city,the emergency capacity evaluation is carried out.The evaluation results are obtained by establishing the evaluation index system and applying the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP).It provides a basis for the improvement of emergency capacity in the future,and verifies the feasibility and practicability of the scenario-based emergency capacity evaluation for large-scale blackouts.