Keshan Rural Drinking Water And Groundwater Depth Evaluation Of Dynamic Prediction

Water is indispensable resources for human survival, safe and reliable drinking water is directly related to people’s health and quality of life. As resources are not balanced with population and management shall not be treated in China, causing the problem of pollution, waste and over-exploitation of freshwater resources is increasing, water safety is threatened, especially in remote rural, drinking water safety is very prominent. In order to protect drinking water safety of rural, maintain life and health of the population and promote regional economic development, it has built up many projects of drinking water safety in the whole of China, and improved drinking water conditions of the local rural, and improved the living standards of rural residents. However, if the construction of projects of drinking water safety is feasible in certain area requires a lot of references, so research of rural drinking water safety in Keshan County, Heilongjiang Province is imperative. Through investigation and analysis, the results are as follows:(1) By analyzing the status of surface water resources, groundwater resources and the exploitation of water resources in Keshan, the result shows drinking water in Gucheng, Keshan is likely to cause endemic diseases, portable, and other issues, restricting economic development. In order to protect the health of the peasant, to promote the rapid development of regional economy, to implement the general requirements of drinking water safety issues in rural and the spirit of the Heilongjiang Water Resources Department, the construction of centralized water supply project is imperative.(2) For water samples, the results shows the surface water in Gucheng is as a Class IV water, content of organic matter is exceeded, iron and manganese is also seriously overweight. Using single factor evaluation method, F-score and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate groundwater quality, the results show that as long as the proper handling of E. coli bacteria exceeded, groundwater quality can meet the conditions of centralized water supply safe drinking water conditions. As the surface water quality conditions are not met the requirements of rural drinking water safety, project investment is high, and water purification process is difficult, choosing groundwater which is good water quality, stabile water quatity,and low cost as the drinking water source.(3) Deeply investigating and collecting raw data of monthly groundwater depth on the2nd well from2000to2010, referring to a lot of literature, using BP neural network, time series analysis, establishing groundwater level dynamic forecasting model, fitting and forecasting groundwater depth. The results show that fitting and prediction is with high accuracy, both methods reveal the dynamic variation of groundwater that interannual variability of groundwater is stable, rebounds slightly in the next three years, water is guaranteed considered from the perspective of water level dynamic in the region.(4) In this article, analyzing from the perspective of groundwater levels and water quality, the results show that this region is reasonable as a water source. Providing a theoretical basis for the project to build scientificly and rationally, indicating construction is feasible.(5) For the majority of rural drinking water safety problems in this area, in order to avoid occurring adverse safety hazards of the centralized drinking water safety project, promot sustainable economic development and groundwater, proposing measures of rural drinking water safety in Keshan, providing reference for regional drinking water safety project management.