Study On Water Environment Safety Evaluation Of Zhenjiang Based On PSR

Water resource is taking more and more attention as the strategic resources to maintain economic growth and social development, so water resource is becoming the main constraint for sustainable development of social and economic. Therefore, water environment security has directly bearing on economic safety and political stability, and it also becomes a strategic issue related to existence and development. In the recent years, the research of water environment safety gradually shifted from theory extended to quantitative research, and an increasing number of methods have been applied to the water environmental safety evaluations. However, the index system of water environment safety evaluation is different because of the geographical differences, therefore, in this study, the appropriate indexes reflecting the characteristics of Zhenjiang City must be selected, for establishing a suitable indicators system to mirror the security situation, analyzing the reasons of the changes of water environment and trends. Through the water environment safety evaluation, analyze the effect of water environment on people's daily life, social stability and economic development, which can provide evidence for environmental management and pollution control.This paper analyzed the basic theories of water environment security, including its concept and meanings. The water environment safety evaluation index system, according to the problems of water quality,quantity,point source pollution,non-point source pollution and environment management of Zhenjiang, is established based on the "pressure-state-response "model, then adopt correlation analysis, AHP and principal component analysis to selection the indicators of index system based on the selection principle, in order to ensure the indicator system is reasonable. Some indexes which values are weaker were deleted after the selection. Finally it comes to a reasonable evaluation index system for water environmental safety of Zhenjiang. Subsequently, using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method as the primary method to assessment the water environment states which take the years statistical data of 2003-2008, and then analyze the evaluation results from targets, indicators, levels and in all aspects of the overall goals, so that to point out the effect to water environment safety. Through drawing the evaluation curve, we can analyze the change trend of water environmental security, and point out the main factors which effect the changes and the reason. Finally, exponential smoothing forecast is taken based on the evaluation results, which displays that the water environment security situation of Zhenjiang will show a better trend in the next two years, but has not yet reached the overall safe state.According to the rusults of assessment, there are so many problems in the water environment state of Zhenjiang, including the total quantity of water resource, water quantity of industry using, water quality of surface water, water quantity of irrigation and pollution control, these indexes reflect the frail aspect of water environment security. In order to improve the water environment security, all the factors above must be considered when environment management and program are taking, thus the suitable policy and measure can be established.