Research On Carbon Dioxide Emissions Quota Decision-making Of China Provincial

The main cause of climate warming is due to human emissions carbon dioxide andother greenhouse gases to the atmosphere in the social production activities. The burningof the fossil fuels is an important source of carbon dioxide emissions. Our country is inthe steady development of the economic high-speed phase, thus energy consumption willincrease, so the carbon dioxide emissions space will become the binding force of oureconomic development. Therefore, estimate the future demand of carbon dioxide andstudy the feasibility of the implementation of carbon emission quota data of our countryhas important significance.In this paper,on the basis of a large number of research and reading literature.Firstestablish models for predicting the provincial regional carbon demand in our country, andusing non-linear least square method to solve the related parameters in non-linear model,through the analysis of the model prediction results and the actual results.and theselection of parameters are improved,parameters selection through the chi-squaregoodness of fit test,this test can makes the results more reasonable and effective. theaverage error is4.07%, the prediction accuracy is higher, this provides methods and datasupport for the formulating of provincial level carbon dioxide emission policy. Second,on the basis of2020commitment of emissions reduction targets, distribute carbondioxide quota to30units at provincial level under five principles, and analysis the quotaunder different principles.The results show that under different principles the quota allocation of variousprovinces, cities and autonomous regions has a large different. Under carbonaccumulation principle, GDP principle, population principle the gap between eastern,central and western is apparent, the gap will reduce under mixed indicator principle, andthe western gets more quota under the payment capacity principle. Under the restrictionof quota allocation the pressure to reduce emissions and the way and pattern are alsodifferent at provincial level. Under carbon accumulation principle and populationprinciple most of the provinces, cities and autonomous regions in the discharge ofsurplus, under GDP principle reflects the imbalance of economic development in ourcountry, surplus provinces are basically in front area of the level of GDP, but theeconomy of less developed areas will be more difficult, mixed indicator principle is set according to the regional economy, population and the imbalance of carbon dioxideemissions, this contributes to bridging the gap between regions, compare to the principleof carbon emissions and population,this principle is more reasonable in the allocation ofemission rights, the balance of emission rights between the provinces are more powerful;the payment capacity principle reflects the principle of less developed areas less liable toreduce emissions, this shows that carbon dioxide quota allocation leaning tounderdeveloped regions in our country, it is the suitable principle which is consistentwith our national circumstances; at last based on different models rationalization policyand suggestions are put forward.