Research On The Carbon Emission Prediction Of Primary Energy Consumption Structure In China Based On System Dynamics

In 2014,China first proposed a new economic norm.This initiative puts forward new requirements for China's energy development.As a result,China began to enter the"new energy state".Under the background of the new normal,our country has more specific targets for energy saving and emission reduction,which put more stringent restrictions on the carbon emissions of our traditional primary energy consumption.China has made energy development plans for this.2015 13th Five-Year "energy" plan proposed in 2020 carbon emissions fell about 5%over 2000,and promised to reach the peak of carbon emissions in 2030 prior to the world,so how to constrain a carbon emission from energy eonsumption 15 a problem to be solved.This paper first analyzes the background of low carbon development of China's primary energy consumption and carbon emissions targets of energy saving and emission reduction constraints,then introduced the basic principle and system dynamics modeling steps;and around the primary energy carbon emissions situation summed up a carbon emissions from energy consumption of the major problems;then the main influencing factors of system decomposition the primary energy consumption from the view of energy saving and emission reduction;to establish a system of energy consumption and system dynamics analysis of factors influencing the interaction relationship(SD)model to test the validity of the model;in determining the model after the first initial operation of the model,analysis the existing policy,the development trend of China's primary energy the consumption structure and the indices of whether meet the constraints,if using the seenario analysis method to a change in the energy consumption of the system of the SD model does not meet the Controllable variables and different simulation scenarios under policy adjustment,China's carbon emissions changes in primary energy consumption and carbon emissions constraint index peak,and then choose the scenario model is feasible;finally,according to the relationship between the elements in the SD system and the current situation of energy consumption,to put forward the scientific and reasonable policy suggestions for future energy development in China.