Research On Driving Factors Analysis And Prediction Of China’s Provincial Energy Consumption And Carbon Dioxide Emission

In order to combat global climate change, in the context of the development of the emerging global low carbon economy, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions has become an important issues of great concern involved in domestic and international political, economic, environmental and diplomatic arenas. As the largest developing country with the world’s second largest energy consumption and the largest carbon dioxide emissions, China’s energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions has become one of the hot issues of international concern. Curently China faces the increasing international pressure to ensure energy supply security, mitigate carbon dioxide emission, address climate change. Energy-saving and emission reduction in China is not only the inherent requirements of transformation of mode of economic development, but also is a responsibility and obligation to address climate change.It is one of important issues for Chinese govment to respond to energy scurity and climate change in the current and a long time in future, how to ensure the sound and rapid development of the national economy, and slow down the excessive growth of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions at the same time. China has a vast territory, it is well known that there exit significant regional differences in terms of resource endowments, levels of economic development, industrial structure and population size. It has great regional differences in regard to regional energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions as well. It has important theoretical value and practical significance to analyse the influence factors of national and regional energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions and predict its future development trends for responding to the situation of energy consumption and climate change, improving the energy-related policies, establishing the medium and long-term energy development strategy as well as low-carbon development strategies.To this end, this paper focuses on issues related to national and regional energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. In this paper, the evolution of Chinese economy, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions is analyzed in detail, the driving factors influencing the increase of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are studied in-depth, the prospects of China’s energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions, as well as the possibility of the achievement of energy-saving emission reduction targets are explored. The main work of this study include:(1) From the national and regional levels, the evolution trend of economy development, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions (3E system) is systematically analyzed.3E system of30provinces are evaluated using the grey correlation analysis and divided into six six different development patterns. (2) Firstly, from the perspective of industrial associations, the contributions to the change of national energy consumption from1997to2007in regards to energy efficiency, economy growth, production structure, final use structure, final allocation structure, population scale and per capita household energy consumption are studied using MRCI structure decomposition analysis method; Secondly, based on provincial data, the contributions to the change of regional energy consumption from1997to2009in regards to energy efficiency, economy growth, industrial structure, population scale urbanization level and per capita household energy consumption are studied using LMDI II decomposition analysis method.(3) Based on the princple of consumption-based responsibility and sharing by power and heat, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions of the nation and30provinces are estimated. Then, the changes in the national and regional carbon dioxide emissions are analyzed in detail using MRCI decomposition analysis method and LMDI II decomposition analysis method, respectively, and accordingly the contributions of various driving factors are investigated.(4) From the perspective of time series and factors correlation, the nation’s and provinces’energy demand are predicted using improved grey prediction model and partial least square regression model, respectively. Based on the structure of energy consumption obtained by Markov chain model, the national and regional carbon dioxide emissions up to2020are estimated, and the possibility of the achievement of energy-saving emission reduction targets, namely reducing the carbon emission intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) by40%-45%by2020compared to2005and the potential for decline in regional carbon emission intensity of gross domestic product are explored.