Research On The Influence Factors Of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Of Tianjin And Bohai Coastal Region

The influence factors of carbon dioxide emissions of Tianjin and Bohai CoastalRegion was mainly studied in this paper. After summarizing the related researchachievements, the method of quantile regression and the estimation and testing of itsmodel were introduced firstly.Then an applied STIRPAT model was built to test the influence factors ofpopulation, economy and technology to the carbon dioxide emissions of BohaiCoastal Region by using the data of Total Employment Personnel (TEP), GrossDomestic Product (GDP), Patents Application Granted (PAG) and Carbon DioxideEmissions (CO2) during1995-2009. And the result of quantile regression of BohaiCoastal Region, Beijing and Liaoning were given. The result shows that the effect ofGDP representing the factor of economy was the biggest factor that influenced thecarbon dioxide emissions in the whole area; However, in Beijing and Liaoning theeffect of TEP representing the factor of population was the biggest factor; The effectof PAG representing the factor of technology always had negative influence generally,meaning that the increasing of PAG would cause the decline of CO2.About the factors of Tianjin, another applied STIRPAT model was built to testthe influence factors of population, economy and technology to the carbon dioxideemissions by using the data of Total Employment Personnel (TEP), Gross DomesticProduct (GDP), Patents Application Granted (PAG) and Carbon Dioxide Emissions(CO2) of Tianjin during1995-2009. ADF stationary test, Johansen cointegration testand Granger causality test were used to show the long-run equilibrium among thevariables. Then the coefficients of the three explanatory variables were estimated oneach percentiles. The result shows that with the rise of quantile, the effect of GDPrepresenting the factor of economy on the carbon dioxide emissions of Tianjindecreases, and the effect of PAG representing the factor of technology increases,while the effect of TEP representing the factor of population increases at firstincreases and then decreases, getting the maximum value on the55th percentile.Finally some relevant proposals was put forward based on the results of theanalysis.