The Dynamic Analysis On Factors Driving Carbon Emissions And Provincial Differences In Bohai Rim

The Industrial Revolution stimulates increasingly human production activities and massive greenhouse gases,represented by carbon dioxide.Currently,academic community has reached a consensus that increasing carbon emissions is a key factor of global warming and irreversible ecosystem imbalance.In addition,North China has been subjected to fog and haze problems in recent years.The international community,including China,is taking active measures to mitigate carbon emissions.In 2015,Bohai Rim,composed of Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Liaoning,Shandong,Shanxi and Inner Mongolia,was delineated in“Outline of cooperation and development of the Bohai Rim region”.It raise to a policy level about seven provinces' jointly controlling air pollution and building ecological civilization.The study on carbon emissions in Bohai Rim has great practical significance.Starting from space definition of Bohai Rim,this paper integrated factors affecting carbon emissions,on the basis of preliminary studies.The carbon emissions was calculated,based on 18 fossil energy consumption in seven provinces 1985-2014.Firstly,focusing on total carbon emissions,an unconstrained VAR(3)model was established,including population,economic development,technology and foreign trade.With impulse response and variance decomposition,the characteristics of total carbon emissions and contribution rate of each factor,response for each driving factors' fluctuations after external disturbance,were estimated.The data shows in long run,total carbon emissions' impulse responses for fluctuations are positive,except economic development.The impulse response for technology is strongest,while foreign trade is unremarkable.Secondly,the paper estimated provincial carbon emissions differences with Theil index,and the different contributions were significant.Then,with the provincial panel data and STIRPAT model,the fixed effect variable coefficient panel model was established to analyze the key factors of carbon emissions.The carbon emission reduction made by economy and technology is universal,while the remaining factors affect variously.Finally,for Bohai Rim's complementary economic progress,this paper designed development paths for carbon emissions reduction from multiple perspectives,such as improving technology,optimizing industrial structure,guiding rational population flow,enhancing the pattern of opening and innovating systems.