Comprehensive Study On Carbon Budget Of Wuxi Based On System Dynamics And Wireless Sensor Network Technology

Based on the the theory of system dynamics (SD) and Vensim, this paper firstly studies thecarbon budget of Wuxi, China during2005—2011. Secondly, choose Dongnan University Wuxicampus as an experiment area to monitoring the environment factors of different land cover types byusing wireless sensor network (WSN) technology, and then estimates the carbon sequestration of thegreen land in the experiment area in summer. In addition, make the comparison between themonitoring results with the model results. At last, explore the path of Wuxi low carbon citydevelopment by scenario analysis. The research suggests that:(1) During2005—2011, Wuxi is acarbon source and the average annual carbon emissions is about28.36MtC. The annual carbonemission from human activity system keeps increasing, while the carbon emission intensity shows adeclining. Industrial sector is the largest carbon source, followed by services and transportation. Thenatural ecosystem is turned out to be a carbon sink with an average annual carbon sequestrationcapacity of133.26gC·m-2·a-1, and shows a greater capacity during2005—2006than2008—2011. Theoverall average carbon sink of Wuxi natural ecosystem is0.3MtC.(2) The land surface temperatureand the CO2sequestration of different land cover show obvious difference. Temperature differencebetween day and night of road reaches8~11℃,while the one of building and vegetation is5~7℃.Thedaily variation curve of CO2sequestration follows a “u” type, that is to say, CO2sequestration is lowerin day and higher at night. The CO2sequestration of road has the widest rangeability of daily variation,followed by vegetation, and buildings comes last. Moreover, road has the highest averagesequestration, followed by buildings, and vegetation comes last. The carbon sink capacity of greenland in experiment area is-3.81gCO22·m-·s-1, which can be regarded as a carbon sink with a certainintensity in urban.(3) The comparison of the results of two methods shows that traffic can be regardedas a stronger carbon source than civil, while the vegetation can be regarded as a carbon sink.(4) Inbaseline scenario, Wuxi will be a carbon source all the time during2005—2030, but the carbonemission amount growth rate will slow down gradually. The GDP will keep increasing, and theaverage growth rate is predicted as10.06%. The carbon emission of human activity system will reach68.75MtC in2030, and the average growth rate will be4.67%. The carbon emission intensity is predicted to be0.19tC·10-4yuan, which is0.25times of2005. The carbon sequestration of naturalecosystem keeps increasing, the carbon sink is predicted to be0.37MtC in2030, which is0.16MtCbigger than2005. Scenario analysis results show that controlling the population growth rate,optimizing the economic structure and energy use structure of industry while improving the vegetationcoverage can make Wuxi complete the low-carbon target in a higher level without economic sacrifice.