| Climate change is a serious challage to human survival and development, concerning national and regional economic and social development. Climate change had bad influence on agriculture, water resource, coastal resource, and natural ecosystem. With further research of climate change, the influence to climate change generated by human activity is more and more recognized by the world. And the increasing of greenhouse gas emitted by human activity is an important factor of global warming.According to the terms of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC) and Kyoto Peotocol, China, as a developing country, does not commit itself to reduce or limit greenhouse gas emission. However, faced with the attitude of being responsible to global environment and the strategic requirement of promoting sustainable development, Chinese government proposed the national GHG reduction target, which is the carbon intensity in2020cut down by40%-45%on the basis of2005. To response to the challenge of climate change, it is a buring question about how to realize this national commitment on provincial and city level.According to the information of social and economic development and energy structure in Jiangsu, this study used the methodology provided by provincial greenhouse gas inventory guideline and IPCC guideline, to calculate GHG emissions produced by energy and industrial process during2005to2010. Then this study analyzed the status of GHG emission in Jiangsu. Based on the policies related to energy and low carbon development in Jiangsu, we set further develop scenarios to analyze greenhouse gas emission trend to the year2050in different scenarios. Combined with the research result, this study would provide references to policy-making for Jiangsu, which could guide GHG reduction more scientifically.(1) GHG emissions related to energy consumption and industrial process in Jiangsu increased from0.53billion CO2e in2005to0.72billion CO2e in2010. Of which, GHG emissions related to industrial energy consumption produced the largest share, accounted for68%of totaol emissions (2010). The next two sections were industrial process (18%) and transport sectors (8%).(2) GHG emissions in Jiangsu will increase till2050. In the ideal solution, the GHG emissions will time to peak around2025. At that time, total GHG emissions will between0.14-0.15billion tons CO2e, and GHG emission per person will be around17ton. The three largest contributors are industrial energy consumption, industrial process and transport sector. GHG emissions from industrial energy and industrial process sector will increase. We should note that emissions from transport sector increases fast to become a big contributor in future.(3) Jiangsu should work on needs driving, structural improvement, efficiency improvement and energy supply improvement, exploring a win-win path to not only slow down GHG emissions, but also promote sustainable development in the future. At first, the government should choose suitable production and consumption patterns, to reduce energy needs. Second, they should optimize production structure and service mode, to cut down GHG emissions. Third, speed up technology research and development, and pomote the improvement of energy end-use technology. |
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