Study On Change Rule Of Pollution Factors And Prediction Model Of The NH₄⁺-N Concentration Of Fu River

Urban river is closely related to human civilization, on the coordinated development ofurban society, economy, environment plays a vital role.But with the rapid development ofindustrialization and urbanization, urban river faces from industry, agriculture, life andother aspects of different degrees of pollution, cause inland river water quality is gettingworse, and even some of the inland river has long been a city sewage ditch, seriouslyaffecting the urban environment quality and resident health;Some of the applications ofwater conservancy engineering measures to a certain extent, also affect the inland waterenvironment.Therefore, urban river pollution monitoring and management is imminent.Baoding is located in the middle of the north China plain, clear four seasons,numerous cities nearby rivers, is a typical northern cities.FuHe is one of the importantrivers surrounding the baoding, a mu spring river, HouHe, qingshui river are FuHetributaries, the river water quality has certain representativeness;And FuHe is one source ofbaiyang lake, the water quality directly affect the baiyang lake, understand FuHe waterquality, improve the baiyang lake water quality also has a certain role in thefuture.Therefore, this article chooses FuHe forever China bridge to along FuHe bridge asthe research object, test the city inland river water quality, and create pollution factorcurves according to the results of the testing and water quality prediction model, accurateprediction for the future FuHe has important guiding significance to the river water quality,to predict the same type of urban river water quality has a certain reference value.The author from July to September in2013selected the FuHe forever China bridge toalong FuHe bridge, a total of eight testing point on the FuHe river CODCr, NH4+-n, TNand TP and the detection of zooplankton, and create pollution factor curves according tothe results of the test.Test shows that, in general, the water quality FuHe range CODCrin20~60mg/L, NH4+-N in10~24mg/L, TN in8~28mg/L, TP0.8~3.6mg/L.The riverwater quality from upstream to downstream, because of the drainage outlet, sluices, riverself-purification ability, under the joint action of a combination of various pollution factorchange without specific rules, in general to forever China bridge, can bridge and alongFuHe bridge water pollution is serious, left-behind temple bridge, the water qualitysituation is better.Have a certain correlation between the pollution factors, usually with theincrease and decrease.According to test results, combined with previous experience, using GM (1,1) grey model is established of NH4+-N down the water quality prediction model, the model of C=0.412<0.45, p=1, demonstrate that model, the relative error of predicted results issmall;By using BP neural network system of NH4+-N time water quality prediction modelis established, the average relative error was3.11%, the relative error of predicted results issmall.The FuHe urban survey period of zooplankton species including rotifers, branchAngle and copepods, detection of zooplankton species,78compared with cities in otherparts of the inland river basin in30~40total number of kinds of investigation data, FuHespecies number, the more the is given priority to with small zooplankton, a large number ofzooplankton species accounted for the proportion of the overall is low.