Research On The Fluctuation And Forecast Of World Tanker Orders

Tanker orders are tanker contracts and orderbooks, and their specific gravity. These fluctuations will directly reflect the tanker market trend. The fluctuation of oil tanker contracts will directly reflect the potential demand of ship-owner, the fluctuation of specific gravity of oil tanker contracts show the demand for various types of oil tankers accounted for the share of total demand for oil tankers; The fluctuations of oil tanker orderbooks and specific gravity provide the basis for future tanker market development, so this paper takes oil tanker orders as main object of study.The purpose of this paper is based on long-span data, uses the approach of complicated and large systems, and analyzes fluctuant characteristic and causes of abnormal fluctuations about tanker orders, predicts the future fluctuations of this situation in 3 years and the trend of parameter values, makes base on current or future changes in relevant factors and the general laws of fluctuations to know in advance how much demand, fluctuation, risk in oil tanker market. It is beneficial to choose tape of oil tankers, quote price, control risk and prepare the materials, fund, talents inventory, equipments, and capital outlays for shipbuilding, shipping industry and shipyard.The main research contents are as follows:first, analyze fluctuant parameters and fluctuant characteristic; second, analyze the causes of tanker orders and abnormal fluctuations of tanker orders; third, use Topology prediction model of Grey system prediction to predict tanker orders.There are several important conclusions in this paper:first, the fluctuations tanker orders are general violent, amplitudes of fluctuation are much higher, fluctuations are in the general upward trend; second, supply and demand factors, and other factors such as international norms, psychologies of ship-owner, are the major factors in the fluctuations tanker orders; third, when we use Topology prediction model of Grey system prediction to predict tanker orders, we find fitting accuracy is much more than 90%. This says Topology prediction method in fluctuations of tanker orders is reasonable and feasible.