Research On Fluctuation And Its Related Fluctuating Risks Of China Shipbuilding-orders

Shipbuilding industry is one of the first important comprehensive industries. It is not only has an important role in the development of a country's economic, technical and management, it also can reflect the country's comprehensive national strength. China's shipbuilding industry develops very fast; it occupies an important position in the international market and impacts socio-economic development in domestic country. Therefore, shipbuilding market characteristics, market trends, as well as China's shipbuilding industry enterprises may face in development issues and potential risks, all are within our government and industry focus.In response to the above concerns, the shipbuilding-orders indicator is the key indicator which government and researchers analyze and see as a reference. As we all know, China's shipbuilding enterprises to select indicators of new orders, orders and deliveries as reference standards. Through these reference indicators'fluctuation situation, China's shipbuilding market of development trend can be reflected, moreover, enterprise business situation and strength level also can be measured, that is in order to develop business strategies and implement risk management. So this article is to study China Shipbuilding-orders fluctuation as basic point, analyze the existence fluctuation of the characteristics, trends, and related fluctuation risks. At the same time, made a guiding framework for the research:1. First, to analysis and recognize about shipbuilding-orders fluctuation. Drawing physicists Wave Theory, determine measure standards of fluctuation are wave form existence and the energy transfer effect of fluctuation. Through China Shipbuilding-orders historical data of CGT unit to draw wave chart, and then compare with wave form standard to recognize the fluctuation and analyze the energy transfer effect of fluctuation by Granger.2. Second, to analysis and measure fluctuation of China Shipbuilding-orders, including the characteristic pattern, trend and related fluctuation risks. For characteristic pattern, to analysis general characteristics of China Shipbuilding-orders in wave crest and trough, amplitude, cycle and wave frequency; to measure marketing structure by using grey relational method and find what order is the key order influent fluctuation of China Shipbuilding-orders. For fluctuation trend, using GM (1,1) model to predict the future trend of Chinese shipbuilding-orders and comparing characteristic pattern to know its characteristic in future. Finally, in a clear understanding of Chinese shipbuilding-orders of future characteristic pattern, from both happening probability of related fluctuation risks and occurrence of related fluctuation risks to analysis potential risks related to fluctuation.3. Third, to assecc the level of China Shipbuilding-orders fluctuation occurrence risk.Using questionnaire method to determine the impact from both the risk factors and risk occurrence. After that, by using the set pair analysis method to give the exactly answer about the degree of the China Shipbuilding-orders fluctuation occurrence risk.4. Finally, to manage the fluctuation risk problem. Aiming at China shipbuilding-orders fluctuation risk, this paper promotes the feasible risk aversion. In the promotion of the risk management measures, in order to guarantee measures proposed feasibly, this paper considers the factors of the fluctuation risk for once more, and the paper points out well-founded avoidances from the key factors which influence the fluctuation risk and the factors which China Shipbuilding firm can control.