Research On The Prediction Model Of Clothing Enterprises’ Multi-Channel Sales Based On Grey Theory

Accurate sales forecasting can help enterprises formulate correct marketing strategies to improve their profitability.But in the apparel field,because the product life cycle is usually short and sales are affected by many factors,the amount of historical data is small and volatile.And in recent years,e-commerce has developed rapidly.While clothing brands occupy the offline consumer market,they have accelerated the expansion of online consumer market.All these factors increase the difficulty of garment sales forecasting to a certain extent.In order to solve the problem of forecasting accuracy caused by multi-channel minority data in apparel enterprises,this paper studies a variety of forecasting methods,and finds that the grey theory can well solve the existing minority data situation in the apparel industry.Based on the grey theory,according to the different characteristics of online and offline sales data,an integrated forecasting strategy for all-channel sales of apparel enterprises is established.Specific practices are as follows: For online sales,the grey correlation analysis is used to screen out the factors that have strong correlation with sales volume,and then the multi-dimensional grey system prediction model OGM(1,N)is used to predict sales.For offline stores,the accuracy of sales forecasting is improved by data classification,that is,monotone sales data are forecasted by discrete forecasting model DGM(1,1)and oscillating sales data are forecasted by random oscillating sequence forecasting model ROGM(1,1)-Markov.In order to test the integration scheme of all-channel sales forecasting model proposed in this paper,the sales data of a Taobao brand in Beijing after October 2017 are analyzed,and six sales data sets(including sales volume,visitor volume,collection volume,additional purchase volume and web page residence time)are selected to validate the online forecasting model.At the same time,six weeks’ sales data of a store in Beijing after May in 2018 were collected.Sixrepresentative sales sequences were selected to validate the off-line prediction model.The results show that the integration scheme of all-channel sales prediction model for garment enterprises based on grey theory has better accuracy and practicability,and can provide certain reference value for enterprise sales prediction.