The Long-term Impact Research Of International Financial Crisis On Chinese High-tech Industry

The high-tech industry plays a pivotal role to the economic development of our country. Researching on the influence of international financial crisis on the high-tech industry development is an inexorable requirement for maintaining the stability of Chinese macro economy and promoting the comprehensive national strength.This also can maintain the healthy development of high-tech industry and deal with the financial crisis.The recovery of the high-tech industry is helpful in leading the development of other industries.This paper is divided into five chapters. Chapter 1 is introduction. Chapter 2 is thought and method of screening the variables to reflect international financial crisis and the variable to reflect the high-tech industry. Chapter 3 is the thought and method of construting long-term influence model. Chapter 4 is the construction of the long-term influence model of international financial crisis on high-tech industry. The last is the conclusion.The main work:firstly, this paper screens 3 variables including Dow-Jones industrial average, the US total import and American GDP growth with significant influence on gross output of high-tech industry through multi-colineary and stepwise regression, and selects the gross output of high-tech industry to reflect the high-tech industry development. Secondly, based on the screened variables above, this paper constructs the long-term influence model of international financial crisis on gross output of high-tech industry through cointegration and error correction.The special and constructions in this paper are as follows. Firstly, through establishing the functional relationship between the t-pth period independent variables and the tth period dependent variable, it reveals the longer-term impact of international financial crisis on Chinese high-tech industry, which changed the situation that the current study only revealed the simple causal relationship between the variables of the same period. Secondly, it selects the parameters such as Dow-Jones industrial average and American GDP growth etc. to compose characteristic vector, which avoided the phenomenon that the current study used domestic economic indicators such as the total export to reflect international fanatical crisis. Thirdly, it screens the variables to reflect international financail crisis through stepwise regression in order to reject the variables with little impact on Chinese high-tech industry and ensure the screened variables with significant impact on Chinese high-tech industry.