Research On Spatial Structure Of The Tourism Resources And The Market Prediction Of Chizhou

Tourism resources and tourist market are very important parts of the system of tourism. Not only the type, the grade and the quantity of tourism resources have effect on the tourism destination's attractiveness, but also their spatial structure. In recent years, the research on spatial structure of tourism resources is so hot. Tourist market is a key factor to the tourism's survival and development. And it's also the focus of competition. The analysis and forecast on tourist market can provide basic data for development tendency, development scale of the tourism resource and it is useful to make the tourism development plans and policies.As an important part of "two mountains and one lake" tourism destination, the tourism of Chizhou developed rapidly in recent years. But there are also some questions such as the irrational structure of space. And the tourism development level, development speed does not coordinate with the tourism resources which it owns. So in this article the spatial structure of the tourism resources of Chizhou is analyzed, and the total quantity of the tourists is forecasted. Then the way to optimize the tourism spatial structure is offered and some basic countermeasures are proposed.At first the author gives a summarization on tourism spatial structure and on tourist market both at home and at abroad. Meanwhile the author analyses the basic situation from natural geographical environment to the social and economic environment and also does a qualitative and quantitative evaluation on its tourism resources. Then the author focus on analyzing the tourism spatial structure--Firstly, analyzing the distribution type of the tourism resources by the nearest point, the type is of condensation. Using geographic concentration index to analyze the equilibrium level of the distribution of its tourism resources, the results shows that the distribution is relatively balanced. Secondly, on the base of knowing the present situation of the tourism traffic of Chizhou, the author analyzes the traffic connection using beta index, whose result is 1.6. It shows that the tourism traffic is not very well and need improving. Thirdly, through the above analysis it can be seen that there are some obvious distribution characteristics of the tourism resources. They are distributed along rivers, along traffic routes and consistent with the"First Town". At last, the author proposes the spatial structure model of"four lines and four plates". The "four lines" are 318 national highways, 206 national highways, Qipu River, Jiuhua River. The "four plates" are the Qiupu plate, the Jiuhua plate, the Guniujiang Plate and the Yaoshun plate. It is helpful to resources integration and development because of relatively concentrated resources and the distribution along main traffic lines. But some questions also exist such as the unbalanced development of each part.In this paper the grey forecast method is used to predict the quantity of the tourists in the following five years. The results indicate that the number of tourists in Chizhou grows at a rate of 29.67% on annual average in the following five years. The number will get to 2564.42 million till 2013. T The forecast data is consistent with the data in tourism development planning of Chizhou. And it is really possible because of the realistic foundation.An optimization model is put forward in this paper. That is "one center, three stronghold, the Yangtze and three rivers, three lines and a ring road". This spatial structure model is helpful to the further integration of the tourism resources of chizhou. And it is useful for its joining to the tourism destination of "two mountains and one lake", also for rational development of tourism resources.Finally, the author designs two-level travel channels and main entrances, puts forward some advices to the development of the tourism of Chizhou, and expects to offer some reference to the tourism sector.