Empirical Research On Pre-warning Financial Crisis Of The Listed Companies In China

Along with the further development of capital markets, listed companies as the main body of capital market, have been greatly concerned by all aspects. In recent years, due to the financial crisis, listed companies were reduced to "ST" segment or even withdraw from the market have intensified. Companies in financial crisis not only threaten their own survival and development, but also bring huge losses to investors and creditors. Therefore, building an effective and practical model of financial distress has important guiding significance to control and resolve the risk of operating, it also provide a useful decision support tools for the interests of all stakeholders.Listed Companies'crises are often the result of the interaction of many factors, the current studies of domestic listed company's financial risk factors mainly focus on the factors of financial indicators, only a small number from certain angles analyze the non-financial factors on the impact of business failure. While domestic studies on the financial difficulties are mostly static, just use a point in time of financial data on listed companies cross-section prediction, very little from the dynamic point of view to predict the financial crisis. This paper is based on financial factors of listed companies based on the model of financial crisis, introducing non-financial factors, describing Chinese listed companies'operating risks dynamic trajectory, establishing a combination of many factors in the evaluation of listed companies in the dynamics of financial crisis model. It provides a reliable basis for the evaluation and accurate grasp of financial crisis of China's listed companies.This paper first introduces the research background and significance of this article. The situations of the domestic and foreign research were reviewed to identify the ultimate goal of this paper's research.Secondly, the financial crisis on China's listed companies has been defined and the mechanism of their formation has been analyzed, defining the financial crisis model of scope.Thirdly, reviews the financial crisis early warning theories again, laying a theoretical foundation and providing a theoretical basis for the study of financial crisis early warning.Finally, we conduct an empirical study on the financial crisis with the data drawed from the actual selected sample of listed companies. By introducing the typical non-financial indicators and reflecting the corporate solvency, profitability, asset management efficiency, the main condition, ownership structure and other aspects of financial indicators, establishing a multiple logistic regression model based on a panel data. It demonstrates the application of multivariate panel data to improve the accuracy of financial failure early warning model. With the actual samples are predicted, conclusion of this article is arrived.