An Empirical Study Of Listed Companies Financial Distress Based On China's Real Estate

Real estate has double characteristics of entities economic and virtual economic.The fall and rise of government departments at all levels,financial institutions,developers,consumer groups and other stakeholders are closely associated with the health of the real estate industry.Whether the high tide of industry development or low tide,it is a focus study concerned with all parties to effectively prevent the crisis of overheating development or recession on real estate.Crisis of enterprises is a gradualprocess.The different stages of the crisis in the general level could be reflected by the deterioration degree of the financial situation of enterprises.As a result,the means of financial early warning are widely used in business forecasting and crisis prevention measures.At this stage,China's theorists have made relatively little study on the financial early warning of Sub-sectors enterprises.Timely and accurate analysis of financial early warning to real estate enterprises is not only the objective need of the competitive market of real estate,but also the need of the survival and development of real estate enterprises.Based on the above,this article carried out a study to explore the financial early warning of China's real estate enterprises.The research was based on the analysis of related risks of real estate enterprises.It found the appropriate financial indicators for the description of the risks.And then it used the financial model of early warning indicators to assess the financial situation of enterprises in order to help decision-makers to take appropriate and effective measures in a timely manner.This paper first reviews the current theory of general corporate financial early warning, then make an in-depth analysis and comprehensive grasp of China's listed property companies on the basis of characteristics.Listed real estate companies with financial data for the samples, using multiple discriminant analysis method suited to our established real estate companies,we list on the financial early warning models.Sub-samples back to the original inspection, testing and prediction of cross-sample test results show that the model can be well on the whole enterprise which would fall into financial distress to make predictions.In which the sample back to the original sub-tests, cross-examination of the results are accurate rate of over 90%.Sample test for the prediction, the financial health of the group and the group of financial distress, the model predicted the overall accuracy rate of over 75%.Due to the limitations of data and methods,the model also has shortcomings,such as neglecting the difference between the Sub-sectors in the real estate industry,and neglecting the difference cost between the error type 1 And typeⅡ.