The Bursting Model Of Housing Bubble Based On The Cellular Automaton Theory

ABSTRACT:The real estate bubble in Japan and the Subprime mortgage crisis in American caused the significant damage to the Japanese and U.S. economy's healthy development. The bubble has burst and caused financial crisis makes the Japanese economy into a long-term depression. The real estate bubble attracted the attention of many people from all fields by its far-reaching hazards. In the past a few years, our country's real estate also appeared to the situation that before the real estate bubble inflated and burst in Japan. Therefore, the research of real estate bubble formation is helpful in China's real estate industry and the healthy development of the national economy. This paper based on the phenomenon of bubble burst shares many similar properties with traffic jam formation on highway. In this paper, for the research of Katsuhiro Nishinari, more discuss can be found about the impact of bank loan on housing bubble by focusing on volume variation. The main work is as follows:(1) In the consideration of bank credit and real estate company's transaction and operation, different models of bubble burst have been established to analyze characteristics of different real estate market under different proportions of loan. The result shows that higher proportion will lead to sharp rise or collapse in transaction volume and speed, and also cause the waste of vacant housing. Effective control on loan ratio is very important to the healthy and sustainable development of economy.(2) By comparative analysis in density flow charts of models and traffic, great similarities can be found. It can thus be concluded that higher loan ratio will block housing market as traffic jams.(3) Existing model has ignored many problems in emulation. For example, the size of company differs from one to another; the whole real estate market is an open system, always followed by companies' in and out, etc. All of those will lead to inaccuracy of simulation result. In this paper, great improvements can be found in those aspects. On the one hand, the author develops shutdown system to open system, and on the other hand, the author sets small and large companies and then analyzes the impact of bubble burst on both kinds of them.