Research On Energy Consumption In Gansu Province

Energy, as an essential material basis and as the most basic driving force, it is essential for human survival, economic development, social progress and the modern civilization. With rapid socio-economic development, growing energy needs and energy scarcity problems have became inevitable problems for human. For these reasons, resource exhaustion, environmental degradation and other related problems have been caused, and these problems have restricted the sustainable development of society and economy. Gansu Province as China's important petrochemical base, it has owned abundant mineral resources for its modernization, which for its modernization development laid a good foundation. However, Gansu's industrial development model depended heavily on its energy, which resulted in it has become a big province of energy consumption. Therefore, study on the problem of energy consumption in Gansu Province, which has important practical significance for both Gansu Province and the Western Region. The main results of this study include:1. Using Gansu Province energy-related data from 1985 to 2008, taking total energy consumption,energy consumption structure,different sectors of energy consumption,energy efficiency,energy supply,demand condition and the development of rural energy as basis, Gansu Province's energy consumption situation and historical trend have been analyzed. Results about the analysis showed that: coal was the main part of the energy consumption in Gansu Province; industrial played key role in energy consumption; energy efficiency was low and the rural energy's consumption was imbalanced, these features will inevitably trigger some problems, such as environmental problems and so on.2. Qualitative and quantitative analyses were applied to analyze economic growth, population, industrial structure, energy consumption structure, technological progress and the urbanization rate impacted on energy consumption. Comprehensive using modern econometric model such as cointegration theory and error correction model, they were used to an empirical analysis, which was about dynamic relation between energy consumption and influence factors in Gansu Province, and which was based on time-series data from 1985 to 2008. It reflected long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuations relationship between various factors and energy consumption. According to the characteristics of social and economic development in Gansu Province, the changing direction, extent and causes of influencing factors were analyzed in the long- term and short-term.3. Taking energy's exploitation and utilization impacted on the environment in Gansu Province as base, choosing discharge index of three industrial wastes, on that basis, principal component analysis method was used to evaluate the quality of Gansu Province environment. The results showed that during the years 1991 to 2008, the overall quality of the environment in Gansu Province was in the worsening state, and in recent years, it has appeared the trend of accelerating deterioration rate. In order to further explored environmental quality deterioration, gray correlation coefficients about energy industrial energy consumption,varieties of major industrial energy consumption and environmental quality indicators in Gansu Province have been calculated, the results showed that the consumption of industrial coal,coke,oil and energy in Gansu Province as the main reason for deterioration of the overall environmental quality.4. Building forecasting model about combination of energy demand of Gansu Province. Gray model and three exponential smoothing models have been constructed by using the total energy consumption in Gansu Province as the time series which from 1985 to 2008, the model fitting and test results showed that two kinds of models have reached a good prediction effect. At the same time, in order to improve the prediction precision of the model, based on the mean square error of a single model, the combined forecast model was constructed. The results showed that compared with the single model, prediction accuracy has been greatly improved, and predicted results more ideal. There has a combined model that was used to forecast energy demand from 2009 to 2020, and the forecast results showed that the total energy consumption in Gansu Province maintained steady and rapid growth rate (4.79%) in that period, by 2020, consumption will reach 92,978,650 tons of standard coal. These results have certain reference value for energy policy.