The Analysis And Forecast Of The Resident Consumption Of Economic And Technology Development Area Of DaLian

With the development of the economic, there is a close relationship between resident consumption and economic development. Total retailing of social consuming is an important index we have to take into consideration while we want to study the life of residents and their purchase power, also the satisfaction degree of their consumption demand and currency circulation, it can have effect on social economy directly. When the eleventh five years planning of national economy and social development is going to be finished, in order to analysis and value the development of total retailing of social consuming of technology and economic development area of DaLian during the last five years, so as the government can play its management functions better and make decisions of the twelfth five years planning rationally. This article choose the total retailing of social consuming of technology and economic development area of DaLian as the research object, it's sure that there is important meaning both on theory and reality. This article chose the total retailing of social consuming data from 2001 to 2009 as the research sample, mainly analysis from some part as follows:(1)We adopted method of dynamic series to analysis the develop level and speed of the total retailing of social consuming, the conclusion shows that the total retailing of social consuming keep on increase steadily during these ten years, after the consistently development of these ten year, it has increased as much as 7.18 billion and reached 9.01 billion in 2009, especially it has achieve the highest speed from 2005 to 2009.(2) We use the method of time series to study the fluctuation rule of the total retailing of social consuming, mainly from trend, seasonal and random. The conclusion shows that the months around spring festival is the peak season, the seasonal factor of January, February and December is higher than other months. From September to November are the slack season, seasonal factors are the lowest. From the single month, the total retailing of social consuming reach the lowest on November but the highest on February. The trend analysis shows that the long term trend keeps a linear relationship with time clearly. The total retailing of social consuming keeps on increase steadily from 2001 to 2009. The random analysis shows that the total retailing of social consuming can be seen as the process of white noise after seasonal and trend adjustment, it means that total retailing of social consuming is rational on the whole, under the constraint of certain factors such as social economy level, social guarantee conditions, information getting, income level, the consumers go after the maximum utility of consuming.(3) We take use of the test of steady and granger, co-integration as well as the pattern of error correction to study the factors that have effect on the development of the total retailing of social consuming of technology and economic development area of DaLian. It shows that form a long term, he main factors that have effect on the development of the total retailing of social consuming of technology and economic development area of DaLian include the index of goods retailing price,the weighted-average exchange rate between dollar and RMB, the deposit of residents, regional production, foreign money we have take use of, index of consumer price,the deposit rate of RMB; However, the pure average income of rural residents, the registration populations, the general financial budget expenditure of government and tax have positive effect on total retailing of social consuming of technology and economic development area of DaLian in short term.(4) We analysis the prosperity of total retailing of social consuming of technology and economic development area of DaLian and do early warnings. At last we projected the amount of total retailing of social consuming of technology and economic development area of DaLian in the next five years. What's more we give some meaningful advice to cope with the problems during the development.The innovation and shortage of this article:analysis and study the factors and fluctuation of the total retailing of social consuming of technology and economic development area of DaLian systematically, and finally give some rational advices. But due to the limitation of the data, there maybe distract of the truth.