| The development of Chinese real estate finance starting later than many other countries', is still in a stage of developing and improving, as a result, the corresponding measures of risk prevention is not complete. In recent years, as the price of Chinese real estate continues to rise, the real estate industry earns more and more attention, At the same time, various conflicts began to emerge unceasingly, One of the prominent conflicts is that the heavy reliance of the real estate development project on bank capital transfers all the risks to the commercial banks, making the commercial banks face huge real estate finance risk. Once the risk breaks out, it will pose a great threat to the whole finance system. Therefore, the study of how to prevent real estate finance risks is of great theoretical and practical significance.In some existing studies, economists found that bank credit caused the raise of the real estate price. Do the findings correspond to the current condition of economic operations in China? What on earth is the cause-effect relationship between band credit and real estate price? Whether the increase in bank credit causes the real estate price to rise, or the raise of the real estate price causes the bank credit to increase, or the two factors interact as both cause and effect relationship?This paper selects 26 group quarter data from 1 st quarter,2004 to 2nd quarter, 2010 and makes the empirical analysis of the relationship between commercial bank credit and real estate price. Through the analysis, we get the conclusion that bank credit and real estate price are cointegrated. The bank credit Granger causes the real estate price while the real estate price doesn't Granger cause the bank credit. Although the result of the empirical analysis found that the real estate price doesn't Granger cause the bank credit, the author believes that it doesn't mean that the real estate price can't influence the bank credit, instead to influence some specific variable of the bank credit. Therefore, the author creates a variable named the deterioration rate of credit assets. Then the author makes the empirical analysis between the relationship of the real estate price and the new variable. The result shows that the real estate price Granger causes the deterioration rate of credit assets, and what's more, the raise of the real estate price causes the deterioration rate of credit assets to rise.The main feature of this paper is it uses some relevant knowledge in finance and statistics integrated, combines the theoretical analysis and the empirical analysis, the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis and the general analysis and the specific analysis, making the empirical analysis of the relationship between commercial bank credit and real estate price, to analyze the real estate finance risks in China. What's more, the author doesn't content on the acquired result but to create a new variable, making another empirical analysis of the relationship between real estate price and the specific variable of bank credit. Finally based on the extensive reading on the relevant aspects, plus the empirical analysis result, the author proposes the some policies and proposals on how to prevent real estate finance risks for commercial banks in China.The paper consists of five chapters, concrete as follows:Chapter one is preface, which includes the backdrop, research purpose, research meanings, the current research status in and abroad, the structure of the paper, research method, likely creations and limitations. The main purpose of this chapter is to introduce the research status on the prevention of the commercial banks' real estate financing risks, and also to introduce the structure and the main content of the paper.Chapter two is the brief introduction of the commercial banks' real estate financing risks, including the relevant conception of the real estate finance, the developing history of the real estate finance in China, the main risks of the real estate finance in China and the reasons of the formation of the real estate financing risks in China. The main purpose of this chapter is to make a general introduction of the real estate finance.Chapter three is the theory analysis of the relationship between commercial bank credit balance and real estate price, including the relationship between real estate and banking, the relationship between commercial bank credit and real estate price, real estate price fluctuation theory. The main conclusion of this chapter is that commercial bank credit interacts with real estate price, and the real estate price rises as the credit balance increases. This chapter makes good bedding for the empirical test in the fourth chapter.Chapter four is the empirical analysis of the relationship between commercial bank credit and real estate price. It includes the introduction of the analysis method, the introduction of the data obtainment and the modifying process, the data empirical test process and the explanation of the test result. This chapter mainly uses the statistic analysis method, making empirical test to the theoretical relationship found in the third chapter by doing unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test to the modified data. The empirical test proves that credit balance Granger causes real estate price and real estate price Granger causes rate of credit assets deterioration. Furthermore, the increase of credit balance causes the raise of real estate price and then the raise of real estate price makes the credit assets deterioration worse.Chapter five is the given policies and proposals on the prevention of real estate finance risks for commercial banks in China. The author, in the hope of achieving the goal of commercial banks'more carefully in developing the real estate finance, puts forward some practical policies and proposals from the point of banks, real estate developing industry and the individual lenders respectively, so as to control the real estate price and the quality deterioration of the bank credit assets. |
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