Research On The Risk And Risk Prevention Of Real Estate Credit In Chinese Listed Banks

Credit assets are the main assets of banks,which accumulated a large number of risks within the bank,so the management of credit risk can not be ignored.In recent years,with the rapid development of "Internet + finance",the whole financial environment has undergone great changes in China,and then the credit risks which commercial banks faced are inevitably increasing faster.In addition,China's commercial banks is closely related to the real estate market which funds more intensive and longer chain,and thus a slight change in the real estate market directly impact on the degree of credit risk in bank.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to prevent the real estate credit risk of commercial banks in time.Based on the CPV model,this paper studies the management and prevention of bank real estate credit risk including theoretical and empirical aspect from the perspective of listed banks.On the theoretical side,firstly the paper expounds the theoretical content of real estate credit risk of listed banks.This paper introduces the characteristics,causes and status quo and problems of real estate credit risk.Secondly the paper summarize the theoretical method of credit risk measurement of commercial banks.We make a measure of credit risk using CPV model which laid a theoretical foundation for empirical model through reviewing the progress of credit measurement from qualitative to quantitative and comparing the four modern risk measurement methods which include KMV,CR +,CM and CPV model.On the empirical side,firstly we select variables.Based on the hypothesis of CPV model,the macroscopic economic coefficient selects three variables,including macro-economic climate index,China Real Estate Climate Index and the medium and long term interest rate,and the default rate is replaced by real estate non-performing loan rate.Secondly we build the model between credit risk default rate and macroeconomic coefficient of listed banks in China.By studying the public data of 17 listed banks in China from 2009 to 2016,we choose to use the STATA software to analyze the panel regression model.The empirical result show that the medium and long term interest rate and China Real Estate Climate Indexare positively correlated with the default rate,while the macroeconomic climate index has a negative correlation with the default rate.Therefore,according to the result of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,we prevent the credit risk from the macro and micro levels.On macro level,commercial banks should abide by the principle of minimizing risk,adhere to prudent management.Simultaneously follow the laws of the market and adjust to the appropriate structure of credit.On micro-level,commercial banks should not only strengthen to review mechanism to lend the real estate loan and keep away blind loans,but also conduct business innovation and disperse real estate loans.Further the bank should advance strictly stress testing and improve the credit risk management system.