Early-Warning Research On Governance Risk Of Chinese Listed Company

Since 2001, domestic and foreign ensued listed company financial false and well-known companies went bankrupt, merger, all events such as the risks associated with corporate governance of listed company. The 2009 the top 100 listed companies in China corporate governance evaluation report shows that these corporate governance level most are "fail", thus the listed companies in China governance risks of problems. Global financial tsunami outbreak and spread, on the one hand, serious damage and the threat of the various countries'economic development and social stability, on the other hand also exposes the original company governance of listed company risk theory and . practice has many defects and deficiencies. Corporate governance of listed company risk has strong latent and concealment, its outbreak is a process from qualitative change to quantitative change, therefore, to the listed company's management risk early warning and supervision is universally problem to be solved, a listed company related interest parties pressing practical needs.This thesis firstly briefly introduced the domestic and foreign about corporate governance of listed company risk research situation, which shows the research status of corporate governance risk early warning the importance of the study. Through expounding the principal-agent theory, information asymmetry theory and other relevant basic theory, so as to deeply analyze the causes of corporate governance risks. After considering the research results of corporate governance risk from home and abroad, combined with the actual governance of listed companies in China, analyzes the influential factors of corporate governance risks, preliminarily formed early-warning index system of the governance risk of listed company. Next, select the illegal companies as a sample, and the similar in industry scale management plate company as matching samples, using the paired T test methods for screening early warning index, Then applies Logistic regression method and survival analysis method in the time depended covariance COX regression modeling, constructing the governance of listed company risk early warning model. After the screening of the early-warning index generation going into the model, the sample company for corporate governance risk early-warning empirical analysis, to compare the two methods of prediction effect, draws the conclusion.