Early Warning Mechanism For Listed Companies' Governance Risk

This years many high-level managers or other executives of listed companies meet with an accident which is not result from their management proceedings or financial distress .The matter of fact is the corporate governance risk(CGR) that badly strike the continuance and the value of companies ,also bring substantive loss to investors. So how to identify and settle CGR is very important, but there are few study on CGR. Although some research institutes and scholars have been going to evaluate the corporate governance level of listed companies, but aiming afterward evaluation. This paper is to construct a systematic early-warning mechanism of CGR.The research value of this subject is that this predicting mechanism aims from the corporate governance that will result corporate failure, avoiding the time and facticity dependence on financial index to assure the appearance of the former predicting model, and it help to identify CGR in time to give a reasonable value to listed companies or bring forward some control measures. Also it construct to establish a more effective governance mechanism that can protect the interest of inventors and can promote China's securities market to develop healthily.The major innovations in the dissertation include:Ⅰ This dissertation describes the sign of corporate governance risk in detail and makes an in-deep analysis on the causes of CGR from corporate governance structure and mechanism systematically.Ⅱ At the basis of normal analysis, this dissertation establishes series of CGR indices based on capital structure, shareholders conference, board of directors, supervision committee, managers and illegal tendency.Ⅲ Construct the predicting model of corporate governance risk using logistic regression analysis based on principal components analysis.The logical mechanism of this article is finding crisis, the reason of crisis, the behavior of crisis and early control measure. First, after reviewing native and oversea study on CGR and prediction models, this article makes an in-deep analysis on the causes and display of CGR from corporate governance structure and mechanism,...