Risk Analysis Of Ocean Shipping Channel And Early Warning Model

In today's economy of world,, factors of production free flow across borders in the global scope, and melts for whole. the exchange of these energy can be achieved through international transportation.the natural conditions objective that nations of the world are apart because of oceans decided the ocean transportation important position, and the safety problems of ocean shipping channel also get extensive concernd, because the security of maritime transport channel directly impacts on maritime transport, national military security, economic security, energy and other important strategy problem transport safety。This paper analyzed ocean shipping channel risk factors comprehensively and specifically by understanding ocean shipping channel's connotation and characteristics, discusses risk index system, designs the risk overall analysis method.It briefly introduces fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method model and the qualitative and quantitative analysis of algorithms. risk analysis is analyzed by using the malacca ocean shipping channel, and by establishing a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, discovery channel risk and influence factors of the function relation between factors, calculate relative to the shipping risk, and the important degree sequence so that take preventive measures in target. In order to reduce accidents, kalman filtering model is established by warning systems division maritime transport channels, relying the level of risk index data realize dynamic warning to achieve beforehand control purposes.Based on the analysis and comprehensive evaluation of risk factors affecting maritime transport channels of concrete, the paper propose suggestion and opinion of reducing the risk of seaborne channel, and realize beforehand control by reasonably applied early warning model.