Trend Analysis Of Internal Structure Of Tertiary Industry In China

Structural adjustment is always being placed as the priority for the transformation of economic development pattern. Our country's structural adjustment is to be con-fronted with a brand new form and task during the "Twelfth Five-year plan". As eco-nomic globalization deepen further with patulous, the level of tertiary industry devel-opment increasingly becomes an important sign to measure economic performance among countries, to take tertiary industry as the core of economic policy is an inevitable result of economic development. Therefore, the adjustment and optimization of internal structure of tertiary industry would promote national economy with high efficiency.This paper not only uses economic theory of tertiary industry from abroad as ref-erences but also combines with its history and current condition in China, mainly fo-cusing on the trend analysis of internal structure of tertiary industry. This paper calcu-lates the input-output model coefficients of the five internal sectors of tertiary industry in order to analyze their spread effects. Then based on the analysis of current situation about the internal structure of tertiary industry from year 2000 to 2009, this paper fore-casts each internal sector's added values of China's tertiary industry by using time-series trend extrapolation method with autoregressive and moving average model being introduced, so as to make a quantitative trend analysis of internal structure of ter-tiary industry over the next five years. In the light of the data and many problems found according to the analysis above in this paper, some suggestions about adjustment and optimization of internal structure of tertiary industry would be given in order to provide rational strategy for Chinese government and the enterprises. First, properly plan the Transportation industry and greatly expand the Information Services. Secondly, make great efforts to perfect Wholesale and Retail Trade, Hotel and Catering should play a fundamental role in our economic growth. After that, reform should be deepened to im-prove the financial system, change the development mode of banking industry. More-over, promote Other Services like Scientific Research and Technical Service steadily; actively enrich the prosperity and development of Culture and Sports. Finally, boost the healthy development of Real estate industry and Consummate Leasing Business Ser-vices.