Analysis Of Time Series About Chinese Tertiary Industry Based On The ARIAM And VAR Models

With the development of the national economy, the industrial structure in our country has experienced a huge change, the development speed of the secondary industry and tertiary industry is increasing rapidly.The proportion of the primary industry gradually is narrowing and the proportion of the tertiary industry increasing.The role of the tertiary industry is more and more big and becoming the important growth point of national economy.Tertiary industry mainly concentrated in the service trade, it not only can provide essential services to the development of the second industry, but also can play a supporting role in the development of second industry. Along with the transformation of the industrial structure,development of the third industry can absorb a large number of surplus labor which from the first and tertiary industrial,which not only can promote economic development,also can ensure our social stability.Thus it can be seen that the tertiary industry is gradually becoming the leading industry in the process of accelerating the optimization of the industrial structure.The development level of the tertiary industry is increasingly became an important symbol to measure the levels of economic growth in all countries.So the research of the third industry in China is also increasingly important.In order to have a systemic projections for the output value of our country tertiary industry,this thesis use the Eviews6.0software.Through contrast the prediction error of the different order of ARMA model,finally choosing the optimal model,so as to achieve the accuracy of the predictions. In order to have a more comprehensive understanding on the development of the tertiary industry, researching the relationship between the tertiary industry and total investment in fixed assets,the third industry employment.For the sake of avoiding the linear regression is easy to cause "spurious regression",the thesis use var model.Through variance decomposition,we can conclude that these factors both have an influence on the development of the tertiary industry,especially is affected by its own. After the above research, finally giving suggestions on the development of the tertiary industry.