Research On The Evaluation Of Credit Risk For Real Estate Development Enterprises

Bank loan is an important capital source for real estate development enterprises, but it can make the credit risk of lending bank larger, especially when fluctuations happen at real estate market, mortgage assets value of real estate become more diminishing, which increases the credit risk of bank, and makes it possible that financial crisis breaks out, such as Southeast Asian financial crisis and U.S. subprime crisis. So it would be a critical problem for controlling credit risk to study an evaluation system and approach of credit risk for real estate enterprises. The author brings forward the particularity of unearned revenue for real estate development enterprises, analyzes the shortcoming of evaluation approach used by ICBC, makes an adjust for four index to construct a new evaluation system for credit risk of real estate development enterprises. Under the new evaluation system, the author makes evaluation analysis for credit risk of 123 listed real estate development corporations by principal component analysis. The main works in this thesis are as followings:1. An evaluation system of credit risk for real estate development enterprises is constructedThe author brings forward the particularity of unearned revenue for real estate development enterprises, analyzes the shortcoming of evaluation approach used by ICBC, makes an adjust for sale net profit margin, the ratio of operating cash flow to debt, the ratio of profit before interest and tax to liability, current asset liability ratio, and constructs a new evaluation system of credit risk for real estate development enterprises.2. Credit risk of 123 listed real estate corporations is analyzed by principal component analysisUnder the new evaluation system, the financial statement data of 123 listed real estate corporations are collected from 2007 to 2009, a synthetic evaluation approach is constructed by principal component analysis, and an empirical analysis is made. The result shows that the superiority and objectivity of new evaluation system can be demonstrated for evaluating credit risk of real estate development enterprises. On the base of that, the Fisher model was established.