Research On Financial Early-warning Of The Listed Real Estate Corporations

In recent years, the financial crisis prediction was researched more popular by domestic and foreign scholars as a hot aspect in financial management, especially in countries with developed capital markets. From the researches, we found that the papers on the whole market were so many and the papers on specific industry were so less. This phenomenon indicated that our recent studies can't reflect the real economic life, because in real life, the factors of management, operation and system were so different in every industry and one model on the whole market can't accurately describe the differences among these factors. So this paper aims at developing one model that can accurately predict the financial crisis of the real estate industry and wants to gets some valuable conclusions from it.Based on the general analysis of materials written by domestic and foreign scholars on financial early-warning, combined basic features of the real estate industry, this thesis analyzed 9 reasons about financial crisis and selected related variables. With statistical analysis of these variables we constructed a Logistic model to forecast the financial crisis of the real estate industry. The main body can be divided into five parts.The first part was preface. It firstly introduced the background of this paper and the significance of writing it, secondly briefly overview the main researches about financial crisis prediction at home and abroad, lastly proposed the writing framework and the features of this paper.The second part was theoretical analysis of financial crisis prediction. In this part, the thesis elaborated the basic concept of financial crisis and the characteristic of the real estate industry, then analyzed 9 reasons of the real estate industry's financial crisis and proposed 14 hypotheses.The third part was empirical analyzing. In this part, it firstly selected 21 variables preliminarily based on the previous hypothesis, then made statistical analysis with these 21 variables and selected the 13 notable variables, adopted Factor analysis to extract 6 main factors as the final factors to construct Logistic model to analyze the financial crisis. The fourth part was the last part of the thesis, it concluded the achievements and defects of this paper, put forward advising for latecomers.