| Financial Crisis early-warning is a subject of widespread concern. As an enterprise running lights, investors warning devices and barometer of economic operation, the financial early-warning is not only of great theoretical significance, but also have a strong application of price. In the past two years, the research of Financial Crisis early-warning which discussed from different angles has gained the abundant achievements. Most of the existing research is facing all industries and enterprises, but in real life there is a big difference in industry management and operations management. Therefore, in order to achieve more accurate early-warning indicators and financial crisis early-warning models, we must combine the characteristics of their various industries.Compared with other industries, the real estate industry is characterized by huge investment, high risk, high returns and a prolonged cycle. Because in china the industry is still quite young, and the financial system in China is not perfect, quite a few real estate enterprise faced higher loan-to-value ratio and higher debt-to-assets ratio, Sometimes even as high as 90%.The high debt-to-asset ratio, to some extent, will affect the profitability of enterprise. Especially since 2008, the state has increased the real estate industry's macro-control efforts in an attempt to "overheating" of the real estate market cooled. With front-line cities housing prices gone down, the real estate environment for enterprises to survive is rapidly deteriorated. Therefore it is necessary to establish a financial crisis early-warning system that allows real estate companies detect their own problems, as soon as possible to prevent risks.In addition, the real estate industry is very wide range of industries, once the real estate industry in crisis, a large number of industries will be implicated, and even endanger the stability of the entire socio-economic development.America's subprime mortgage crisis proved this point. Therefore, the establishment of the financial early warning model for the real estate business have great practical significance. In the empirical research part of this paper, I designed a model for financial early warning system by means of the logistic regression model. There are five parts in this paper.Chapter 1, IntroductionIn this paper, the author first discusses background and the necessity of the real estate finance risk early warning research, and then review of research in the field of early warning results from the definition and financial crisis and building early warning model. The author conducts a brief summary of domestic and foreign literature, which induces the definition, the study sample design, selection of early-warning index and statistical method. The results showed that domestic financial crisis early-warning of the following problems:(1) The sample selection ignored industry difference, (2) Early-warning index selection is not comprehensive.A little research explicitly consider cash indicators and non-financial indicators. (3)At present, virtually all scholars used 1:1 samples matching principle in the existing research.Finally, the author propose research ideas of this article based on the analysis of these results.Chapter 2, the basic theory of financial crisis early-warningFirst, the author define the financial crisis as an economic phenomenon that the enterprise produces serious loss or continuous loss, and unable to pay the cost of the existing debts and expenses. Financial healthy is the best starting point. Then the author analyses the relationship between financial risk and financial crisis. Finally, the author summarizes financial crisis early-warning definition, role and related theories.Chapter 3, Real estate enterprise and financial crisisFirstly, the thesis introduces the concept and characteristics of real estate enterprise, and summarizes financial management features. Secondly, combining the characteristics of real estate enterprise, the author describes real estate enterprise's financial risk from basic reason and the profound reason. The basis reasons include irrational financing structure, blind investment and high vacancy rate of commercial house. The subjective reason is mainly the imperfect corporate governance structure and the lack of core competence. Therefore, if we want a comprehensive forecast of financial crisis in the real estate corporate, we should fully consider the source from governance structure and so on. Only in this way will we be able to timely detection and effective prevention of a potential financial crisis.Chapter 4, the financial crisis early-warning model of the real estate CorporationThe construction of the model has the following steps:selection of samples---selections of indicators--- normal distribution test ---t-test and Mann-Whitney U--- Principal Component Analysis--- the construction of the model by logistic Regression Analysis---validity test of the model. Specific content as follows:(1)Based on the actual situation of China's capital market, we defined the ST companies in the capital market as the financial crisis companies, and choose 16 ST companies and 166 normal companies as the samples from the real estate industry in China.(2)When it comes to the construction of financial crisis early-warning model, on the basis of previous studies and real estate companies characteristics, the author eventually choose 37 indicators(including 6 debt paying ability indicators,6 earning power indicators,6 operation power indicators,5 growth power indicators,4 cash indicators and 10 non-financial indicators) as the research variables. To filter the variables which have the remarkable differences between the ST companies and normal companies, the thesis chooses 22 representative variables which are ready to be adopted by the model after using the t-test and Mann-Whitney U. To eliminate the relevant influences among 22 representative variables, these variables had been leaved for Principal Component Analysis, so the six main factors had been selected; these factors had been used in the Logistic regression model. Establish financial Crisis early-warning model as follow:(3)In the end, the thesis not only builds the financial crisis early-warning model of the real estate industry in china, but also examines and certifies the stability of the model. The result shows that the model has a very accurate effect on the samples.Chapter 5, Conclusion and prospect This section includes the thesis achievements, defect and the future of Real Estate Corporation's Financial Crisis Early-Warning Model. Combination of early-warning model of the real estate construction, draw the following conclusions:(1)The vast majority of early-warning indicators do not meet the normal distribution, so normal testing must be carried out before the significance test; (2)The variables which have the remarkable differences between the ST companies and normal companies mainly related to earning power indicators, inventory turnover rates and receipts; (3)Introduction of non-financial indicators is a measure which can improve the model accurate effect. Therefore, if the real estate corporation wants to avoid or defuse the financial crisis, they should increase profitability, accelerate inventory turnover and so on.This research contributions include:(1) Combined with the real estate corporation's characteristics with theories and methods of financial crisis early-warning,the thesis establish a industry-specific, accurate stronger finance crisis early-warning system; (2)The thesis doesn't use 1:1 samples matching principle which is a serious deviation from reality; (3)The thesis includes more comprehensive finance crisis early-warning system, including financial indicators and non-financial indicators.The limitations of this paper mainly include:(1)This data comes from listed company's financial statements, fails to contain a large number of small and medium-sized enterprise; (2)Early-warning index selection is not comprehensive, only contain readily quantifiable indicators; (3)Due to data limitations, the thesis doesn't estimate the new samples, which may overestimated the model's prediction capacity; (4)The model only apply to the short-term forecast; (5)Once listed companies manipulate financial data, the financial crisis early-warning model would not predict. |
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