Early Warning Financial Crisis Of China’s Real Estate Listed Companies

In recent years, the real estate industry has developed rapidly in our country,becoming the pillar industry of national economy in China. However, due to the realestate industry has the characteristics of high risk, high income, large demand for money,slow pace of capital returns etc, leading to the possibility of the existence of financialrisk in real estate industry is relatively large. In addition, because the real estate industryis under the influence of national macro-control policies and financial markets,effectively avoid the financial crisis is imminent. Therefore, by means of effective andtimely warning management of financial crisis monitoring in order to seek the bestprevention and control countermeasures, so as to reduce due to financial problems ofthe impact of enterprise survival and development is of great significance.This article takes the real estate companies’ financial crisis as the research object,introduces the relevant theories about financial crisis warning. And then from the basiccharacteristics of the real estate industry, raises the general characteristics of thefinancial crisis in real estate industry. Taking into account the real estate listedcompanies is affected by various factors in the process of business activities, thispaper analyses the property of the financial crisis of the listed company from twoperspectives and uses the Logistic regression model as warning model. The choice ofwarning indicators are in accordance with the principle of warning index selection,using the significance test and factor analysis method to determine the explanatoryvariables of the Logistic regression model. In empirical research part, Logisticregression models based on pure financial indicators and Logistic regression modelsincluded non-financial indicators are constructed. Finally put forward measures toprevent the financial crisis warning of real estate industry in China and summarizes theconclusions, at the same time points out inadequacies and prospect of this article.